The South Carolina senator's path to winning the nomination starts with his war chest and runs right through his home state.
Mic Smith/AP
The most intriguing potential GOP presidential candidate might just be the senator a majority of Republican voters still aren't sure what to think about.
National attention is transfixed on former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. A protracted and ugly clash between the two men appears inevitable, even though DeSantis isn't expected to announce until at least May. If the fallout scars both men, an opening could easily emerge for a third hopeful.
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is strongly positioned to capitalize.
Scott, like DeSantis, has yet to formally announce a campaign, though he established an exploratory committee on Wednesday. Scott could very well end up being the only GOP senator to enter the field after Sen. Tom Cotton demured, and neither Sens. Ted Cruz nor Marc Rubio seem likely to launch a second presidential run.
If he were to run, here's a look at how Scott could break out to be on the cusp of a history-making nomination win.
Fellow Republican senators love gushing about their colleague who then-Gov. Nikki Haley appointed to the chamber in 2014. At the time, Scott was the only Black Republican representative in Congress. Scott has made his family's incredible rise from "cotton to Congress" a key part of his personal narrative.
"I hope he is considering jumping into the race," Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst recently told Insider while on her way back to her Senate office. Ernst, who serves on the GOP leadership team, added that the contest should remain dignified, something she said Scott is already leading on.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, who also served with Scott during their days in the US House, hailed his deliberative approach to everything.
"That is quintessential Tim Scott," she told Insider while heading into the Senate chamber, noting that his kindness and focus make him "a very unique Republican."
But more than just his colleagues, Republican voters may also be just as effusive.
It's difficult to find polling on Scott's national favorability, but a recent Monmouth University poll of self-identified Republican voters showed significant promise. DeSantis remains the most popular candidate, but he's also so well-known that he has little room to grow. Meanwhile, Scott remains widely favorable among voters who have formed an opinion of him, but many still have no opinion. This means his popularity could shoot up even further as his profile increases.
It pays to be someone in Scott's position this early in a presidential contest. Just look at former Vice President Mike Pence, who has a far different problem. Pence has just a +5 percent point favorability rating in the same poll, with 21% saying they have no opinion and no voters saying they haven't heard of him. Not surprisingly, this means Pence is well known, and most voters have their minds made up on him already, leaving his precious little room to grow as the contest unfolds.
Scott's most compelling case might just be his campaign's bank account. Having easily won reelection, he started the year with over $20 million at the ready. In comparison, Sen. Elizabeth Warren used $10.4 million to help seed her Democratic presidential run in 2019.
Trump easily has more money at his disposal, with an estimated $80 million spread between his operation and an allied Super PAC, per Reuters. DeSantis has kept pace with Trump, but if the letter of campaign finance law is followed it's much more difficult for the governor to readily use his reserves directly on a presidential campaign.
The South Carolinian is also well positioned if the Republican National Committee imposes grassroots donor thresholds for official primary debates. Axios reported in late January that the RNC is considering using the same tactic that Democrats used to winnow their debate field in 2019. According to OpenSecrets, just over 40% of the money Scott raised from 2017 through his 2022 re-election was from small donations of $200 or less. In comparison, Rubio, a former presidential candidate, drew just under 36% from the same type of donor.
Finding small donors can be a costly endeavor for a campaign. Florida Sen. Rick Scott has endured intense criticism of his management of Senate Republicans' campaign arm during the midterm cycle. One of Rick Scott's major ideas was to use tens of millions of dollars to finance a massive digital fundraising operation aimed at generating grassroots funds. As The New York Times documented, this strategy flopped amid inflation, and the committee lost more than $17 million.
The party's nomination is technically never decided by the early states alone. By design, delegate-rich states such as Texas and California loom far larger later in the calendar. But the combination of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina has doomed countless campaigns as media narratives begin to take hold.
Scott has both a major advantage and disadvantage here. By virtue of representing his home state, he should perform well in a state that has historically ended GOP nomination fights before they really start. At the same token, if he or Haley, the state's former governor, fails to perform well, their campaign will be effectively over. Other challengers may also try to do what the Democratic hopefuls did in 1992 when they effectively ignored the Iowa caucuses due to favored son Sen. Tom Harkin's candidacy. Home-field advantage is also far from guaranteed.
Sen. Lindsey Graham bowed out at the last minute in 2016 amid fears that he was on the cusp of a disastrous primary showing in South Carolina.
The biggest hurdle for Scott or any candidate not named Trump or DeSantis will be finding an opening. Presidential cycles are littered with frontrunners who flamed out (see Jeb Bush) and unknowns who surged at the right moment (see Cruz), but those examples occurred in a far different environment.
In the modern era, no party has seen a one-term president try to retake the White House. 2016 also saw a historically large presidential field with no overwhelming frontrunner as multiple Republican candidates jockeyed for position. The reality, as FiveThirtyEight found after extensive review, is that early polling is fairly accurate at predicting future nominees, especially when they poll with the numbers Trump and, to a lesser extent, DeSantis are right now.
Trump's support is not what it once was, but the former president still maintains a loyal following that could prove decisive if the field remains large headed into Iowa. His lead has held steady even as criminal charges were filed against him in Manhattan in early April.
Scott could hope his current path would mirror Cruz, who broke out of low single-digit national polling to later win the Iowa caucuses. But at this point, Cruz had already drawn major national and grassroots attention for leading the 2013 government shutdown to defund Obamacare. It's unclear how Scott could find a similar moment with presidential campaigning already underway.
