Series Preview: Mets Look to Bounce Back at Home

The New York Mets had a series to forget in Milwaukee earlier this week, losing three consecutive games to undo all the momentum they created down in Miami. Manager Buck Showalter and his team will look to turn the page as they prepare for their first home series of the season against the Marlins.

If anything was taken away from last weekend’s series, it is that the Marlins are going to be a tough team to beat, each and every night. The addition of Luis Arráez at the top of the lineup gives them a certain kind of presence that sets the tone for the rest of the game. They may have lost three of four against the Mets to start the year, but the Marlins should not be overlooked in this matchup. 

Friday, April 7, 2023: RHP Edward Cabrera (0-0, 4.5o ERA) vs. RHP Tylor Megill (1-0, 3.60 ERA)

Edward Cabrera has always been a guy with plus stuff, but injuries and inconsistencies with control have always been his downfall. The latter played a major role in his first start of the season, as he was only able pitch four innings against the Mets on Apr. 1. Cabrera allowed six hitters to reach base on balls, which quickly escalated his pitch count. The right-hander didn’t allow much other than that, giving up a total of two hits and striking out two.

The 24-year-old had a good mix of usage between his four-seam fastball, changeup and slider against the Mets. If he is able to throw all three of those pitches with any sort of control, the Marlins may have another really good starter on their hands. Cabrera is looking for a much different result at Citi Field this time around, going 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.571 WHIP in his previous two starts there.

Tylor Megill was expected to begin the 2023 season with AAA with the Syracuse Mets, but injuries to Justin Verlander and José Quintana created a hole in the big league rotation. The right-hander stepped in and performed quite well in his season debut, working around some early trouble to throw five innings, allowing two runs on six hits while striking out seven in Saturday’s 6-2 victory. Megill’s only blemish came in the bottom of the second when Marlins catcher Nick Fortes hit a two-run home run to left field.

The Mets starting rotation is already thin and it is only April, so it appears that the 27-year-old is going to have an opportunity to cement himself as a strong piece in this pitching staff. Megill has 142 major league innings under his belt, so the experience is certainly there. If he can continue to effectively throw the slider to play off his four-seam fastball, the Mets starter should find more success as the season goes on.

Saturday, April 8, 2023: LHP Trevor Rogers (0-1, 6.23 ERA) vs. RHP Kodai Senga (1-0, 1.69 ERA) 

Trevor Rogers had an underwhelming 2022 season, going 4-11 with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.505 WHIP in 107 innings of work. The southpaw was in desperate need of a fresh start to the new year. Unfortunately for him, the Mets really made things difficult in his first start of the campaign on Sunday. Rogers was only able to make it through 4 1/3 innings, allowing four runs to score, three of which were earned, on four hits and two walks in 84 pitches. Mets outfielder Tommy Pham hit a two-run homer to left-center field against Rogers in the top of the fifth, which pretty much ended his outing.

Two of those four hits came against his changeup according to Baseball Savant. That was his second most used pitch on the day, only behind the four-seam fastball that was thrown on Pham’s home run. Luckily for Rogers, Citi Field is a ballpark in which he has pitched well in throughout his young career. The 25-year-old is 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA in five career starts at the home of the Mets. Can he continue that good run at Citi Field this weekend?

Kodai Senga had a bumpy start to his first MLB appearance, but he was able to settle down in the series finale against the Marlins last Sunday. The right-hander threw 36 pitches in the first inning, giving up two hits and surrendering two walks along the way. But to his credit, Senga was able to limit the damage, as he only allowed one run to score in the frame. From that point on, it was smooth sailing for the 30-year-old rookie.

The Mets starter settled down as the game went on, utilizing all four of his pitches to keep the Marlins lineup off-balanced. Senga’s most effective pitch, the forkball, induced all eight of his strikeouts on the day. His ability to mix that in with the four-seam fastball was the biggest reason why he was able to pitch so deep into the game, despite the rough start. Senga showed a lot of promise in his debut, going 5 1/3 innings, giving one earned run on three hits and three walks. It will be interesting to see what kind of adjustments are made for the Marlins as they face him for the second time this week.

Sunday, April 9, 2023:  TBD vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco (0-1, 11.25 ERA) 

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