The Masters is the best golf tournament in the world for a variety of reasons. Near the top of that list is the familiarity we all have with the tournament and Augusta National Golf Club. Every year, when April rolls around, you’ve got a pretty good idea of what you’re going to expect from the […]
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The Masters is the best golf tournament in the world for a variety of reasons. Near the top of that list is the familiarity we all have with the tournament and Augusta National Golf Club.
Every year, when April rolls around, you’ve got a pretty good idea of what you’re going to expect from the season’s first major. Because it’s the same course with the same format every year, certain trends and patterns develop that help point us toward the players who are most likely to contend or even win.
It’s far from foolproof, though. Two years ago, Hideki Matsuyama won despite not fitting the trend-based profile of a Masters champion. A year ago, Scottie Scheffler even kicked through the door despite what some of the biggest trends said.
It’s still fun to look at, though. Among our own yearly Masters traditions is using the process of elimination from these trends to spit out a winner.
Here goes nothing.
— The last 13 Masters winners have been inside the top 30 of the World Golf Rankings
| Scottie Scheffler | Rory McIlroy | Jon Rahm | Patrick Cantlay | Max Homa |
| Cameron Smith | Xander Schauffele | Will Zalatoris | Viktor Hovland | Justin Thomas |
| Sam Burns | Collin Morikawa | Tony Finau | Cameron Young | Matt Fitzpatrick |
| Jordan Spieth | Tyrrell Hatton | Sungjae Im | Tom Kim | Kurt Kitayama |
| Hideki Matsuyama | Keegan Bradley | Shane Lowry | Billy Horschel | Joaquin Niemann |
| Tom Hoge | Tommy Fleetwood | Corey Conners | Brian Harman | Sahith Theegala |
This is going to be a trend that needs revisiting at some point, probably sooner than later. LIV Golf members can’t really get world ranking points, so conceivably, someone like Dustin Johnson would be on this list if he were still gaining points.
— There hasn’t been a repeat winner since 2002 (Tiger Woods)
Scottie Scheffler bucked some trends last year, but this is a big one standing in his way here.
— The betting favorite hasn’t won in 12 years
More bad mojo for Scheffler.
— Only one Masters debutant has won the tournament (Fuzzy Zoeller)
Enjoy your first time around the property, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama and Sahith Theegala. Better luck next year.
— Nine of the last 13 winners had at least three Masters starts
Scheffler also bucked this trend last year, but for the sake of the exercise, go ahead and further cross off Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns, Cameron Young and Tom Hoge.
— The last 13 winners have posted a top-10 finish in the same season
This is where it gets tricky. What do you do with LIV golfers like Cam Smith and Joaquin Niemann? We’re going to let Smith stay because he has a top-10 in a LIV event for whatever that’s worth. Niemann is out either way, though. As are Billy Horschel and Brian Harman.
— Ten of the last 11 winners had at least two top-15 finishes in three events leading up to Masters
This is where we really start to thin the herd. Xander Schauffele will have to try again next year. Tony Finau is a popular pick this week, but he’s done, too, and Matt Fitzpatrick won’t be slipping on the green jacket in his first Masters after winning the U.S. Open. Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood and Corey Conners, all popular long-shot picks, are donezo.
— Ten of the last 11 winners ranked 16th or better in the world rankings
Farewell, Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im and 2021 champion Hideki Matsuyama.
— Thirteen of the last 14 winners have finished in the top 30 at the Masters
There goes Max Homa.
— Nine of the last 10 winners had a top five in their last five events
We’ve gotta start widdling down, so we’ll include the Match Play, which eliminates both Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa from contention.
That leaves Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth.
— Seven of the last 10 winners have had a top-five at the Masters
Cantlay and Hovland are gone, leaving us with the trio of McIlroy, Rahm and Spieth, three of the greatest golfers of their generation. Makes sense.
At this point, it’s rather arbitrary when it comes to which direction to take this thing. But here’s an interesting stat from Steve Bamford at the Golf Betting System that will help get to one.
— Seven of the last 10 winners were in top 11 of par 4 birdie of better (either pre-event or previous season in extenuating circumstances)
Again. Super-arbitrary, but it does leave Jon Rahm as the last man standing. To further point out this is far from scientific, Cantlay, Rahm, Homa, Hovland, Hoge Young, Schefler and Day all ranked in the top 12 of that stat coming into the tournament.
It’s a razor-thin margin, but in the end, these (relatively random) trends point to Jon Rahm as the 2023 Masters champion. Rahm is arguably the best player in the world, so this isn’t much of a surprise at all.
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