How Pollsters Got Everything So Wrong
Cliff Schecter talks about the election and how the pollsters and the media got everything wrong. (Click here to subscribe.)
"We didn't get everything right. But we here used evidence, experience & knowledge to get most of the election right. We knew Gen Z would be huge, they'd proven it in Kansas, New York and Alaska elections earlier this year. Big Media, however, had their own narrative, which was stunningly, stupidly wrong," he said.
He talks about how the analytics nerds have now gotten as bad as the "I go by my gut guys" of yore, by not accepting that there is actually emotion in analysis. That not all numbers are equal, that confidence, fear, etc, play a role you can't quantify. (You know, which is why baseball analytics are so often wrong.)
"Experience tells people like me that certain districts/states, no matter what the numbers say, are better for us due to history, and the media overall sucks because they bought into this, not looking at the evidence from Kansas abortion ban, NY-19, and Alaska earlier this year, as well as registration numbers and enthusiasm, but just their dumb polls that Gen Z hang up on, and as first or second time voters are screened out of being 'likely voters.'"