The nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture are among the most difficult to predict. That’s largely because the five contestants are determined by a committee made up of about 2,500 randomly selected SAG-AFTRA cardholders, rather than the guild’s entire membership (which consists of about 160,000 people.) Despite that, I am confident “The Woman King” cast will receive a Best Film Ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards. Read on for my five reasons why.
In recent years, a number of high-profile films with large and well-known casts have notably been snubbed by the guild’s nominating committee. That includes everything from “The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” “The Favourite” and “Vice” to “Little Women,” “Marriage Story,” “Mank” and “West Side Story.” Meanwhile, voters have surprised us by nominating the likes of “Beasts of No Nation,” “Captain Fantastic,” “The Big Sick,” “Mudbound” and “Parasite” (the last of which ended up devouring the competition.)
This year’s SAG Awards sweepstakes are already looking like a bit of a conundrum. While there are several films which would appear to be favorites (“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans” and “Women Talking”) there are at least a dozen other titles which could just as easily make the cut. “The Woman King” cast is teetering in fifth place in the combined Gold Derby odds. I suspect that it may fall in the coming weeks as other contenders become more widely seen. But I plan on keeping it in. And barring a year-end awards asteroid to really shake things up (a la “Don’t Look Up” last year) – I would encourage you to include this one in your predictions.
1. Two words: Viola Davis.
I need not say more – but will for the benefit of any readers still new to the joys of Gold Derby. She’s one of the guild’s most celebrated citizens, and holds a number of key distinctions. She’s won EVERY film category in which she’s eligible: Best Ensemble (2011’s “The Help”) and Best Actress (“The Help” and 2020’s “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) and Best Supporting Actress (2016’s “Fences).” And yet to top it off, her “Bottom” bonanza tied her with Renée Zellweger as female actor with the most individual SAG film wins. (Zellweger’s trio came for 2002’s “Chicago,” 2003’s “Cold Mountain” and 2019’s “Judy.”) It’s also worth pointing out that every time Davis has received her own SAG Award nom, her film earned a corresponding cast nomination. That includes 2008’s “Doubt,” “The Help,” “Fences” and “Ma Rainey.” Should you still have any doubts about Davis’s popularity with her fellow actors, remember that she has also prevailed on the TV side, with back-to-back wins for Best Drama Actress for “How to Get Away with Murder” for her work in 2014 and 2015. Both times, she defeated previous heavyweight champs Claire Danes in “Homeland,” Julianna Margulies in “The Good Wife” and Maggie Smith in “Downton Abbey.” While I’m not necessarily predicting Davis to make another killing for “The Woman King,” I do expect that she’ll be nominated. And if SAG invites “The Woman,” expect them to invite the entire company of “King.”
2. “The Woman King” is filled with superb performances.
Davis’s fine work as a female warrior in early 19th century West Africa is probably enough itself to slay the SAG Awards committee. But she’s backed up by an incredible ensemble of actors, including Thuso Mbedo as a fearless and independent young girl, Lashana Lynch as a headstrong and experienced fighter, and John Boyega as the powerful king who joins forces with the character played by Davis. While the film’s battle scenes are tremendous, the dramatic exchanges conducted by the assorted actors are just as impressive. It’s the same type of theatrics that often results in a SAG Best Cast nomination, like “Les Miserables,” “12 Years a Slave,” “Fences,” “Black Panther,” “Parasite,” Da 5 Bloods,” “One Night in Miami,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and “Belfast.” Based on their previous tastes, “The Woman King” should have voters salivating.
3. “The Woman King” has been more widely seen than other potential contenders.
The film debuted in theaters in September, and handily conquered the box office on its opening weekend. As of this writing, its domestic gross is approaching $70 million and continues to grow. With a rare A+ CinemaScore, it should be a popular selection when it starts streaming later this month. All of that gives “The Woman King” a distinct advantage over many of the smaller end-of-year releases, which not all guild committee members will have a chance to screen. Therefore, “The Woman King” could roar its way into the SAG ensemble race.
4. The guild tends to nominate diverse casts.
The SAG Awards have a reputation for being an exceptionally inclusive organization, and that is often reflected in the selections that it makes. The group frequently nominates projects that feature people of color in prominent roles. In the past 10 years alone, that includes “The Butler,” “12 Years a Slave,” “Beasts of No Nation,” “Straight Outta Compton,” “Fences,” “Hidden Figures,” “Moonlight,” “Get Out,” “Mudbound,” “Black Panther,” BlacKkKlansman,” “Crazy Rich Asians,” “Parasite,” “Da 5 Bloods,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “Minari,” “One Night in Miami” and “King Richard.” Just last year, voters bestowed its top honor on “CODA,” which showcased the work of several deaf actors. “CODA” was able to overcome films with considerably more star power, like “Don’t Look Up” and “House of Gucci.” As a film with an all-black cast plus all-star acting, “The Woman King” looks like a logical SAG selection.
5. “The Woman King” is dominated by women.
The guild has a long history of nominating films headlined by women. Sure, many of them were clear Oscar frontrunners, like “Sense and Sensibility,” “Chicago,” “The Hours,” “Precious,” “Black Swan,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “The Help,” “Hidden Figures” and “Lady Bird.” But there have been many others which made the SAG shortlist without reaping a similar Academy Award nom for Best Picture. Look at “How to Make an American Quilt,” “Marvin’s Room,” “Dreamgirls,” “August: Osage County” and “Bombshell.” While there may be more awards buzz for the soon-to-be-released drama “Women Talking,” there’s always room for another “Woman.” And that could be “The Woman King,” a worthy warrior for a shot at SAG’s Best Cast crown.
PREDICT the 2023 Golden Globe and SAG Awards nominees
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