We should get results from the US mid-terms from midday Wednesday. Here’s how things stand for now.
The House
- 538: GOP majority 83% likely. Median projection is 229 GOP, 206 Democrats (218 is a majority)
- RCP: 242 GOP, 193 Democrats
- RacetoWH: GOP majority 68% likely, 224 GOP, 211 Democrats
The Senate
- 538: GOP majority 54% likely. Median projection is 51 GOP, 49 Democrats (51 needed for GOP)
- RCP: 53 GOP, 47 Democrats
- RacetoWH: GOP majority 48% likely, 50 GOP, 50 Democrats
Key Senate Races
- Georgia – 538: GOP 57% to win, 0.5% margin; RCP: GOP win by 0.4%
- Pennsylvania – 538: GOP 46% to win, -0.6% margin; RCP: GOP win by 0.1%
- Nevada – 538: GOP 57% to win, 1.0% margin; RCP: GOP win by 2.4%
- Arizona – 538: GOP 34% to win, -2.2% margin; RCP: Dems win by 1.0%
- New Hampshire – 538: GOP 27% to win, -3.7% margin; RCP: Dems win by 0.7%
The GOP need to win three of those five for a majority.
So the GOP is highly highly likely to win the House but the Senate is going to be very very close, if the polls are accurate.
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