While Tyler Lockett has been the Seahawks’ best receiver this season, it might be time to bank on a DK Metcalf hot streak.
Even though the NFL trade deadline has passed, most fantasy leagues are still in the trading period. So there’s still time to improve your roster.
Which players should you be looking to acquire? And which should you be looking to ship out? Before getting into that, let’s quickly revisit last week’s trade for and away targets.
I dubbed Devin Singletary a trade-for target last week and he had his second-highest rushing output of the season, but he was lightly used in the passing game. And that figures to be the case going forward after the Bills acquired Nyheim Hines. Tyler Boyd was another player I recommended to get and he had a top-30 finish, with a touchdown, and will continue to have a larger role as long as Ja’Marr Chase is out.
As for the trade-away targets, David Montgomery had one of his worst outings of the season last week and though Michael Pittman Jr. was very involved in the Colts offense, he didn’t do much with the targets he received from new quarterback Sam Ehlinger.
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Khalil Herbert, Bears
Herbert has been one of the most effective rushers this season. His 6.2 yards per carry is tied for the second-best mark in the NFL behind only Lamar Jackson. The second-year pro out of Virginia Tech just had his second-best game of the year against the Cowboys and his highest rushing output in a game in which he shared the field with David Montgomery (I wrote about Montgomery as a sell candidate last week).
There is, of course, the matter of Herbert playing second fiddle to Montgomery in the backfield, and now that the Bears have figured out they should be running Justin Fields 10-plus times per game, that, too, limits Herbert’s ceiling. Counterpoint: Herbert has posted back-to-back top-20 finishes while playing 41% or fewer of the snaps; the week he took over for Montgomery and got to drive the car all by himself, he was the overall RB1. That Herbert is a startable back with limited opportunity tells you all you need to know about how good he is, and how good he can be.
It’d be great to see Herbert a bit more involved in the receiving game, but there’s only so many passes to go around in Chicago anyway. The indication is he’s primed for a big second half of the season and you want that to happen on your team.
DK Metcalf, Seahawks
Seattle’s entire season has been somewhat of a rollercoaster, and the same goes for Metcalf, who’s been carted off the field twice and lived to tell the tale. Compared to Tyler Lockett this season, Metcalf has been the less sought after Seahawks receiver so far, which is why he could be a bit easier to acquire for the stretch run.
Metcalf ranks just inside the top 24 receivers in total points even though he only has one game inside the top 12 and just three among the top 24. Unsurprisingly, he’s scored a touchdown in each of those games. Positive touchdown regression is bound to come for the 6’4” target. Of the 14 players in the NFL with double-digit targets in the red zone, his two receptions are the fewest. The kicker? Both have gone for touchdowns.
His yardage outputs will be on the up and up as well, as his average depth of target rises and he and Geno Smith’s connection grows stronger with each week. Lockett has outperformed Metcalf to date, but a few more receptions in the red zone could be the difference between a borderline WR2 and a fringe WR1.
Dalvin Cook, Vikings
Cook quietly ranks outside the top 12 running backs, which is not where anyone who spent a first-round pick on him would like to see him at the midway point of the season. He has two weeks inside the top 12 and two outside the top 24. What’s at the root of the problem? His volume is down.
The 16.3 carries Cook is fielding per game would be his lowest mark since 2018 and his 2.4 catches per game is a career low. There’s only been one other season in his career in which Cook saw fewer than 20 touches per game. But let’s focus a bit on the positive, which is what you’ll sell managers on if you do elect to unload him: His 4.9 yards per carry is his second-best mark ever, he’s getting more yards before contact than ever and he’s already almost matched his 2021 touchdown total.
He hasn’t been a massive disappointment, but you could recoup some substantial value before the deadline if you do move him. And look at that upcoming schedule: Washington, Buffalo, Dallas, New England. No, thank you.
Christian Kirk, Jaguars
Kirk’s fantasy standing is buoyed by a strong start to the year. He finished as a top-24 receiver in each of his first three games in Jacksonville and compiled three touchdowns. In five games since, he’s managed a top-24 finish just once and has just one touchdown. That downturn in production has naturally overlapped with Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars as a whole bottoming out.
After a 2-1 start, Jacksonville has lost five in a row and Lawrence has been held under 200 yards in three of those games. Doug Pederson has also been intent on establishing RB Travis Etienne Jr. the last few weeks as opposed to letting Lawrence sling it: The Jags rank 22nd in passing rate on the year.
As for Kirk, he caught six or more passes and finished with 70-plus yards in each of those first three games, both figures he’s only hit once since. As enticing as his next few games are, Jacksonville still has its bye remaining and the playoff schedule is tougher. Cash in while you can.
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