Tom E. Puskar/AP Photo; Alex Brandon/AP Photo;Insider
Longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur faces off against Republican newcomer J.R. Majewski for Ohio's 9th Congressional District. Kaptur has long enjoyed a Democrat-leaning constituency but faces her most competitive race in decades.
No woman in the US House has served longer than Kaptur, who has served Ohio's 9th Congressional District since 1983 — when President Ronald Reagan was just halfway through his first term.
Since then, she's cruised to re-election each election cycle, typically winning her races by more than 30 percentage points on the appeal of her fairly moderate political record among a constituency that is, on balance, working class, predominantly white, and densely populated.
Flash forward nearly 40 years: Congressional redistricting in Ohio wasn't kind to Kaptur, with a Republican-led legislature thrusting her into a decidedly redder district than the one she's been representing for the past decade.
About half the people in the district in which she's now running aren't currently her constituents.
In May, Majewski scored a surprise victory in a four-way Republican primary. Former President Donald Trump endorsed him in June. Into the summer, it seemed equally plausible that Majewski or Kaptur would emerge victorious in November.
Then Majewski stumbled.
His flirtations with QAnon conspiracy theory and pro-Trump presence in Washington, DC, on January 6, 2021, became clear. He violated federal law by failing to disclose required details about his personal finances, doing so only after Insider first reported on the matter.
In September, the Associated Press reported that Majewski misrepresented aspects of his service in the Air Force. Majewski's military service story further unraveled when Majewski's assertions that a "brawl" disqualified him from re-enlisting in the Air Force — even though military records indicate that drunk driving appeared to have contributed.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has since bailed on Majewski in a sign that GOP brass have left him to fend for himself.
But in an interview with Insider during a campaign stop in Toledo, Majewski projected confidence that he will win regardless.
Tom E. Puskar/AP PH
Ohio's current 9th Congressional District is nicknamed the "snake by the lake," as its current iteration stretches in a thin, winding, gerrymandered strip along Lake Erie from just west of Cleveland to Toledo and Ohio's state line with Michigan.
This has been to Kaptur's benefit. For the past decade, Kaptur has easily dispatched her Republican opponents in this solidly blue-collar and Democratic district. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated then-President Donald Trump here by about 19 percentage points. In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won the district over Trump by about 22 percentage points.
But Ohio's redrawn 9th Congressional District — the district in which Kaptur and Majewski are running — is decidedly redder, centered in blue-ish Toledo but encompassing significantly more rural (and Republican-leaning) areas both to the west and east.
According to OpenSecrets, Kaptur has raised $3.1 million, spent about $3.1 million, and has about $738,000 cash on hand, as of October 19. Majewski has raised about $930,000, spent about $777,000, and has about $154,000 cash on hand, as of October 19.
As of November 2, super PACs, national party committees, and other non-candidate groups have combined to spend about $4.2 million in this race, including during the race's primary phase. House Majority PAC, a national Democratic hybrid PAC backing Kaptur, leads all spenders.
The race between Kaptur and Majewski is rated as "lean Democratic" by Inside Elections, "lean Democratic" by The Cook Political Report, and "leans Democratic" by Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
