We’re getting close to the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season, and we continue to learn the same lesson: There’s no such thing as a sure thing. Perhaps the pendulum will swing back the other way at some point, but through eight weeks, betting favorites are covering at a modest 43.3% rate, according to […]
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We’re getting close to the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season, and we continue to learn the same lesson: There’s no such thing as a sure thing.
Perhaps the pendulum will swing back the other way at some point, but through eight weeks, betting favorites are covering at a modest 43.3% rate, according to Covers.com. When it comes to teams laying points at home, the number is even worse, with home favorites going 30-42-1 ATS (41.7%) this season.
For a lot of bettors, or those in weekly pick ’em pools, it can be a little uncomfortable to avoid those favorites, even if it’s increasingly clear that’s the way to go.
With that in mind, here are three Week 9 betting favorites you might want to avoid.
(-5) Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
The Dolphins are 5-3 and very much in the running for an AFC playoff spot, but the way in which they have gotten there hasn’t been especially impressive. Granted, the Dolphins have dealt with quarterback injury issues, but Miami has just one win by more than one score this season. That came in Week 1 against the Patriots in a game that was closer than the 20-7 final score indicated. Even a game like last week, where Miami gained more than 7 yards per play, went 8-for-12 on third down and scored on all three of its trips to the red zone, the Dolphins needed to erase a 10-point halftime deficit to win by four in Detroit. This week, they’re on the road again against an occasionally frisky Bears team. And, as the Dolphins very well know, the Soldier Field turf is notoriously bad. The Bears changed the grass type, but it remains to be seen how that will hold up in November in Chicago. If it’s sketchy at all, that could negatively affect a Dolphins offense that thrives on getting the ball to speedy playmakers in space and letting them do their thing.
(-7.5) Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers
Things didn’t go well for the Bengals in the first game of Ja’Marr Chase’s absence. Only seven teams averaged fewer yards per play in Week 8 than the Bengals, and that was against a Cleveland defense that has had real problems stopping teams this season. Now, here come the Panthers. Carolina’s defense ranks 10th in EPA per play allowed since firing Matt Rhule and is just outside the top 10 in yards per play allowed. The Panthers like to blitz a lot — 30% of the time — which makes for an interesting case with Joe Burrow. The Bengals quarterback has a 119 passer rating when blitzed, but Pro Football Focus has him graded 17th among 24 qualified quarterbacks when blitzed. One theory: Burrow hasn’t made great decisions and has gotten lucky. PFF graded him with four turnover-worthy passes against the blitz but he has yet to be intercepted. Not only that, having elite receivers can make up for poor decision-making, but without someone like Chase, that whole operation gets worse. On the other side of the ball, we saw last week what PJ Walker can do to cover a spread late, and the Panthers being a top-10 yards-per-play team since he took over indicates the offense has taken a big step forward.
(-5.5) New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts
We’re going to hear all about the Bill Belichick angle this week, of course. He has been nearly unbeatable against young quarterbacks, and second-year QB Sam Ehlinger is making just his second career start. The knock on him coming out of Texas was he sometimes got a little careless with the football, and we just saw a week ago what Belichick could do against a careless QB. All that being said: Just two weeks ago, Justin Fields and the Bears went into Gillette Stadium and laid a whooping on Belichick’s Patriots. That New England defense, though still dominant at times, has more variability than in the past. The Patriots’ run defense ranks 27th by DVOA, too, and here comes Jonathan Taylor. New England’s biggest issues might come on offense, though. The Colts’ run defense ranks sixth by DVOA and has only gotten better with the return of Shaq Leonard. The Colts struggle to defend the pass, but Mac Jones has looked iffy at best since returning from his ankle injury, and there’s no one on the outside who will scare the Indy defense. And perhaps the returning Stephon Gilmore can let his new team in on some of his old team’s secrets?
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