Let’s take a quick look at another lackluster “Thursday Night Football” game and then see if I can convince you on a few teaser legs for the rest of the NFL Week 7 slate. We’re trying to build on Week 6, where you could have made $160 on a $100 bet if you followed our […]
The post NFL Week 7 Picks: Saints-Cardinals Prop; Three-Team Teaser To Consider appeared first on NESN.com.
Let’s take a quick look at another lackluster “Thursday Night Football” game and then see if I can convince you on a few teaser legs for the rest of the NFL Week 7 slate. We’re trying to build on Week 6, where you could have made $160 on a $100 bet if you followed our three-team, six-point teaser.
The New Orleans Saints are 2.5-point road underdogs Thursday against the Arizona Cardinals. The Saints will be without several key players in the matchup, including wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, as well as cornerback Marshon Lattimore. That makes me lean toward a Cardinals win. However, Arizona is off to a painfully slow start. The Cardinals rank last in the NFL with less than five first-half points per game. New Orleans averages nine points, which isn’t much better. I lean under on the total game, as well as the first half under 21.
Notice those are leans. For games I don’t love a side or total, I look at props like Thursday night where I think there’s an edge with Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz.
New Orleans Saints at (-2.5) Arizona Cardinals, Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET
Zach Ertz over 44.5 receiving yards (-115) and anytime TD (+240)
I am not sure why Ertz’s receiving yard number is so low and why his anytime TD prop is so cheap, but I’ll happily take both. He’s averaging almost 60 receiving yards a game and trails just receiver Marquise Brown on the team for targets, catches and receiving yards. Brown is out for at least a month with a foot injury. While receiver DeAndre Hopkins is back from his suspension, I expect a little rust from the wideout but also think his presence should take some attention off Ertz. The tight end should get plenty of opportunity in the passing game as well as in the end zone. His 11 red-zone targets lead the team by a wide margin.
If you don’t like the Cardinals to cover the line, it’s also a good six-point teaser spot to get the Saints up over a touchdown.
Speaking of teasers, here are few options I like this week, starting with New England.
Remember, a two-team six-point teaser pays out -120 (make sure to shop around). A three-team, six-point teaser pays out up to +160 (DraftKings).
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Bengals from -6.5 to -0.5
I never thought I’d feel the need to tease the Bengals down against the Falcons in Week 6, but here we are. Cincinnati has yet to play to its potential for a full game, while Atlanta has one of the NFL’s most consistent offenses while boasting a flawless against-the-spread. But while this Bengals team has not looked close to what we saw at the end of last season, I see too much value in Joe Burrow and his squad versus Marcus Mariota and friends in a coin flip situation. Burrow had his best game of the season last week against the Saints with 300 passing yards and three touchdowns, behind an offensive line that looked much cleaner. His weapons in the passing game — Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins — are still reliable. Joe Mixon hasn’t looked dominant yet but remains dependable. The potential of this offense is a big task for the Falcons defense which ranks fourth worst in total defensive DVOA.
It’s far too early for me to buy into this Atlanta hype while also fading the Super Bowl runner-up.
New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3), 1 p.m. ET
Giants from +3 to +9
Brian Daboll doubters have been quieted. The 5-1 Giants are rolling behind back-to-back wins over Green Bay and Baltimore. Now back on the road, they take on a Jaguars team that has been tough to handicap. Jacksonville blew out the Colts and Chargers in Weeks 2 and 3 before losing to the Texans and Colts the last two weeks. The Giants’ consistency is what makes me lean New York here. The G-Men could very well win this game and keep this streak going, but I feel much better getting them over a touchdown. Running back Saquon Barkley continues to dominate with the second-most rush yards in the league, averaging almost 103 yards a game.
The Jaguars have been very effective in stopping the run so far, but elite players still show up against tough competition. Barkley put up 164 yards against a Titans defense that ranks third overall in rush DVOA. If all fails, Daboll and Daniel Jones have proven they can do just enough in the passing game to get the job done. I like the Giants to keep it within a touchdown on Sunday.
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Patriots from -7.5 to -1.5
I played the Patriots in two teasers last week to get them up over a touchdown but didn’t need it as they took down the Browns 38-15 as a road ‘dog. But this looks like a low-scoring game with a total at 39.5. That likely means less variance, and I feel more comfortable teasing the Pats down than laying the 7.5.
New England also still has some questions looming around the quarterback situation with Mac Jones potentially nearing a return. I don’t see why Belichick would rush his second-year quarterback back to the field when he clearly has a capable backup in Bailey Zappe, but I’m not the decision-maker. The Bears don’t have a ton of strengths but have been solid against the pass. They are above average in pass DVOA and allow the third-fewest passing yards per game at 178.7. On the other side of the ball, the Bears have found some success in the rush attack, ranking second in yards per game (170.7).
Stopping the run has been one weakness of the New England defense that ranks seventh worst in rush DVOA. The tease saves me a sweat over a breakout run or two into the red zone from explosive Bears back Khalil Herbert. But the Patriots have the better coach, better roster and get a woeful Chicago offense led by Justin Fields, who is bottom 10 in QBR. He has more interceptions than touchdown passes and his 869 passing yards are the worst of any starting quarterback who has played all six weeks. Belichick owns rookie quarterbacks, and he should make the second-year Fields look like a rookie. Give yourself a sweat-free Monday play and tease the Patriots down here.
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