Poll shows slight shift in Vance, Ryan race as Election Day nears
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- The latest poll in Ohio elections, conducted by Suffolk University and USA Today, showed the candidates for U.S. Senate statistically neck-and-neck with three weeks until Election Day and a number of ballots already cast through early voting.
Pollsters conducted polling from Oct. 11-15, and the results were released Monday.
Vance, Ryan are still neck-and-neck
In the race for U.S. Senate, Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan are in a statistical dead heat, a common thread in recent independent polls.
Of the Ohioans polled, 47.4% said they would cast a ballot for Vance, and 45.4% said they would vote for Ryan. That is within the poll's 4.4% margin of error. A previous Suffolk poll in September had Ryan at 46.6% of the vote and Vance at 45.6%, which was also within the margin of error.
In an NBC4, The Hill and Emerson College poll released last Thursday, Vance also held a slight edge over Ryan -- which was still within the poll's 3% margin of error.
A little more than 6% of respondents in the Suffolk poll said they were undecided on their preferred candidate for the Senate.
| Pollster | FiveThirtyEight Score | Date Conducted | Vance (R) | Ryan (D) | Net Result | Within margin of error? |
| Suffolk University | B+ | Oct. 11-15 | 47% | 45% | Vance +2 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Oct. 6-7 | 46% | 45% | Vance +1 | Yes (+/- 3%) |
| Cygnal | B+ | Oct. 6-8 | 46% | 44% | Vance +2 | |
| Siena College | A | Sept. 18-22 | 43% | 46% | Ryan +3 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
| Baldwin Wallace University | B/C | Sept. 12-15 | 45% | 48% | Ryan +3 | Yes (+/- 4.1%) |
| Marist College | A | Sept. 12-13 | 46% | 45% | Vance +1 | Yes (+/- 3.6%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Sept. 12-13 | 44% | 40% | Vance +4 | No (+/- 3.2%) |
| Civiqs | B- | Sept. 10-13 | 48% | 45% | Vance +3 | Yes (+/- 4%) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | Sept. 5-7 | 46% | 47% | Ryan +1 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
| Echelon Insights | B/C | Aug. 31-Sept. 7 | 39% | 45% | Ryan +6 | No (+/- 4.3%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Aug. 15-16 | 45% | 42% | Vance +3 | Yes (+/- 3.2) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | May 22-24 | 42% | 39% | Vance +2 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
DeWine still ahead in governor's race
Incumbent Republican Gov. Mike DeWine led challenger Democrat Nan Whaley, the former mayor of Dayton, by double digits in the latest poll. DeWine has been the frontrunner in the bulk of independent polls in recent weeks.
Of those polled, 55.8% planned to vote for DeWine and 38.4% for Whaley -- with a little more than 4.5% of respondents undecided in the gubernatorial race.
| Pollster | FiveThirtyEight Score | Date Conducted | DeWine (R) | Whaley (D) | Net Result | Within margin of error? |
| Suffolk University | B+ | Oct. 11-15 | 56% | 38% | DeWine +17% | No (+/- 4.4%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Oct. 6-7 | 50% | 36% | DeWine +14 | No (+/- 3%) |
| Cygnal | B+ | Oct. 6-8 | 57% | 35% | DeWine +22 | |
| Siena College | A | Sept. 18-22 | 55% | 32% | DeWine +23 | No (+/- 4.4%) |
| Baldwin Wallace University | B/C | Sept. 12-15 | 49% | 33% | DeWine +16 | No (+/- 4.1%) |
| Marist College | A | Sept. 12-13 | 50% | 33% | DeWine +18 | No (+/- 3.6%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Sept. 12-13 | 49% | 33% | DeWine +17 | No (+/- 3.2%) |
| Civiqs | B- | Sept. 10-13 | 44% | 41% | DeWine +3 | Yes (+/- 4%) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | Sept. 5-7 | 54% | 39% | DeWine +15 | No (+/- 4.4%) |
| Echelon Insights | B/C | Aug. 31-Sept. 7 | 54% | 35% | DeWine +19 | No (+/- 4.3%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Aug. 15-16 | 49% | 33% | DeWine +16 | No (+/- 3.2) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | May 22-24 | 45% | 30% | DeWine +16 | No (+/- 4.4%) |
Pollsters also asked respondents about their general feelings about a number of notable people in federal and state politics.
DeWine led the pack -- more than half of the Ohioans polled said they viewed him favorably. About one-in-five said they had not heard of Whaley.