A best bet for Game 1 of the NLCS between the host and favored Padres and Phillies.
The National League Championship Series kicks off Tuesday night as the fifth-seeded Padres host the sixth-seeded Phillies at Petco Park in San Diego.
Both teams ousted 100-plus-win teams on their way to the series and, needless to say, both teams are hot entering the NLCS. The Phillies slugged their way to a 3-1 series win over the second-seeded Braves, while the Padres held the 111-win Dodgers’ bats in check to down the NL’s top seed in four games.
The Phillies have won both Games 1s this postseason, while the Padres bested the Mets in the wild-card round before losing Game 1 to the Dodgers.
Bet on Game 1 of Phillies-Padres at SI Sportsbook
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Yu Darvish starts for the Padres and went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Darvish has been strong in the postseason, allowing only four earned runs across 12 innings (3.00 ERA) and winning both of his starts. Darvish is striking out eight batters per nine innings in the postseason.
Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies and went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA in the regular season. He’s allowed three earned runs across 12 1/3 innings in the postseason (2.19 ERA) and is striking out 6.5 batters per nine innings in the postseason.
As you can tell, these starters are fairly evenly matched.
Both bullpens have been excellent in the postseason, though the Padres had the edge during the regular season.
The Phillies are hitting .237 this postseason and scoring 5.33 runs per game, while the Padres are batting .239 and scoring 4.43 runs per game. Both teams have hot hitters, including Bryce Harper, who is hitting .435 with six extra-base hits - including three homers - and a 1.437 OPS across six postseason games for the Phillies, and the suddenly red-hot Trent Grisham, who has shown a knack for timely hits in the postseason as well with three home runs for the Padres.
So, how are we going to bet on this one? We’re going to bet on the bats. I don’t trust either bullpen to remain this dominant, and the Phillies have scored the most runs per game in the postseason with the Padres scoring the next most of the remaining teams. Darvish’s average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom half of the league, so the Phillies could get a few knocks, and the Philadelphia bullpen that managed only a 4.27 regular-season ERA is bound to regress.
It’s hard to bet against the home team, so instead let’s take the over despite two aces being on the mound.
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