Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on changes in temperature-sensitive cardiovascular and respiratory disease mortality in Japan

by Yukitaka Ohashi, Yuya Takane, Ko Nakajima

Some cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are triggered by changes in ambient temperature or extremes of temperature. This study aimed to clarify the changes in mortality associated with temperature-sensitive diseases in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used data from three major cities (Sapporo City, Tokyo 23 wards, and Osaka City) from 2010 to 2019 to determine disease mortality rates and monthly mean temperatures from April to December. If the pandemic had not occurred in 2020, the results showed that temperature-sensitive disease death counts would have increased from 324 to 980, based on a 95% confidence interval estimated from the past 10 years in Sapporo (19–56% increase in actual deaths from 2020), from 651 to 2,653 in Tokyo (10–39% increase), and from 235 to 1,343 in Osaka (8–48% increase). Analyses of meshed population data during the COVID-19 pandemic indicated that inhibiting people’s behaviour and outdoor mobility, especially in older men, caused a decrease in mortality.