The top team stacks seeing leverage for Thursday's slate by comparing optimal probabilities to expected ownership are the New York Yankees and the Minnesota Twins.
The post MLB DFS: Yankees, Twins Top Leverage Stacks for Thursday appeared first on NESN.com.
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STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
YANKEES LOOKING TO BUILD MOMENTUM
The New York Yankees are atop of the team stack leverage board for tonight’s slate as they will face off against James Kaprielian and the Oakland Athletics. Everyone is well aware of the overly publicized Yankees’ drought, but this team has won three straight games against good baseball clubs and now faces the directionless A’s. What better scenario could we want for the Yankees to carry over the sliver of confidence they have regained? They still rank in the bottom eight in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past week, but we can’t be too quick to forget that they lived in the top five in those same categories for most of the season.
Kaprielian is the type of pitcher the Yankees have been yearning for as a way to build some sustainable momentum. He doesn’t strike out many, walks plenty of batters, and struggles giving up power. All while his xERA and xFIP sit around 5.00, what isn’t there to like? We are only expecting this stack to see roughly 5% ownership with a pretty affordable average price. It’s almost certain the Yankees will get something off of Kaprielian, and a few weeks back that many would be drooling for an opportunity where the Yankees could unleash. This could be it.
TWINS HOPING TO BREAK SLUMP
The Minnesota Twins are in free fall, opening up a leverage situation for the team stack facing Luis Garcia and the Houston Astros. This past week has not been kind to the Twins as they have dropped five straight games and are at risk of falling to third in the AL Central. Their bats have been lifeless as they have ranked in the bottom three in ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and runs scored, along with an ugly strikeout rate. They are also shorthanded as one of their best hitters in Byron Buxton, recently being added to the IL.
Garcia has had a bumpy August where he has worked up a monthly ERA of 5.25 and some strikeout regression. Seasonally, he has pitched well for Houston as we still see his expected ERA and FIP around 3.50 with strong strikeout production at a 25% clip. He already has a dominant outing against Minnesota under his belt as he went five scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. While this stack is enticing, given the ownership and affordability, this feels like a better opportunity for Garcia to break his slump rather than the other way around. But hey, anything is possible.
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