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STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top 6 projected hitters. Team cost is the average cost of that team’s top six optimal probability players.
Team stacks seeing the most leverage: Rangers, Orioles
We expect to see desirable leverage with the Texas Rangers’ stack tonight in their game against James Kaprielian and the Oakland Athletics. The Rangers have been swinging the bats nicely as they rank outside the top ten in wOBA and wRC+ with some added power given their eighth-place ISO ranking. That power could play out well tonight, given Kaprielian’s inability to limit power effectively. The Rangers have struggled striking out, but that shouldn’t be too much of a concern, given Kaprielian’s strikeout of rate 15.2%.
The Rangers have faced Kaprielian twice already this season as they were able to knock in seven runs over a combined 9.1 innings. Pretty evident that the Rangers already have proven the ability to see the ball well out of his hand, so look for them to come into tonight’s matchup confident. This stack is priced reasonably and holds nan optimal probability, so the leverage we are seeing is welcomed. Backing the Rangers’ stack against a weak opponent given the affordability and ownership offers us a low-risk, high-reward play.
The Baltimore Orioles find themselves in a situation where they look to be minimally owned because they are going up against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Gerrit Cole. The O’s have had a pretty fun July so far that included that win streak and some strong production offensively as they rank right on the outside of the top ten in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ for the month. The All-Star break didn’t stall this offense as they produced six runs last night.
Cole has been excellent this year with phenomenal strikeout numbers like usual, with his xERA and xFIP both south of 3.00. The Orioles have done pretty well against him this season as they have scored seven runs over 15 innings off the Yankees starter. They will be very affordable tonight and are expected to see minimal ownership given Cole’s presence alone. However, the Orioles have already proven the ability to hit decently well off him so far this season and have been great in July, so taking a shot on this stack with hopes of their success rolling into tonight won’t be that much of a risk to make.
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