The Mets (49-30) are heading to Cincinnati to take on the Reds (27-51) in a three-game series. Max Scherzer will make his long-awaited return to the Mets this series, boosting a starting rotation that has had some struggles of late. This series will be a battle between two teams trending in opposite directions, at the Mets are in first in the NL East, while the Reds find themselves in last place in the NL Central.
The Mets are coming into Cincinnati off a series win against the Texas Rangers. Eduardo Escobar came alive in that series, homering in all three games and driving in six runs. Starling Marte also stayed hot at the plate, homering in his first at-bat in both the second and third game. The Mets’ even got some production from Dom Smith, who went three for five with two doubles while pinch-hitting in the second game and starting in the third game.
On the pitching side, the Mets’ rotation was dealt another blow when Chris Bassitt was placed on the Covid-IL. Luckily, David Peterson stepped up in his place and pitched a solid game in Bassitt’s place. Trevor Williams faltered a bit starting game two on three days’ rest. But Carlos Carrasco bounced back from his two bad starts against Houston to help the Mets win the series in game three.
The rebuilding Reds are having an abysmal season. Cincinnati had lost ten straight games at home before beating Atlanta on Sunday 4-3. The win against Atlanta was the Reds’ first walk off win this season. Most of the losing can be attributed to a struggling pitching staff. The starting rotation has been problematic, and of the five current starters, only trade-candidate Luis Castillo has an ERA under four. The Reds’ bullpen had been besieged by injuries to key pitchers. Hunter Strickland was recently named the team’s closer only after the other potential closers ended up on the injured list. One of those potential closers is Alexis Díaz, brother of Edwin Díaz. Alexis won’t be active during this series against the Mets, as he’s still working on returning from biceps tendonitis. But perhaps when the two teams meet again in August, we’ll get to see both Díaz brothers pitch.
On the offensive side, the Reds are getting a decent amount of production from a few former Mets. Brandon Drury is playing well, as he’s batting .270/.329/.523 with a team-leading 16 home runs. Albert Almora Jr and Matt Reynolds are also having decent seasons. Reds’ icon Joey Votto got off to a slow start this season, batting .134/.276/.171 through the first 24 games of the season. He did not hit a home run until his 25th game. He’s hit five home runs in the 35 games since and in his last 30 games, he’s batting .262/.363/.477, so things are definitely looking up for him.
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Monday, July 4, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (6-2, 2.27 ERA) vs. RHP Hunter Greene (3-9, 5.72 ERA)
Walker has been extremely solid for the Mets this season, holding up well even when other parts of the have rotation faltered. He is the only starter other than Scherzer who currently has an ERA under three. In his last start, against Houston, Walker pitched brilliantly, tossing 7 1/3 scoreless innings and giving up only four hits and two walks. Walker has only faced the Reds once in his career, back in 2017, when he gave up five runs in five innings of work. Mike Moustakas, Tommy Pham, and Votto are the only current Reds’ players with at-bats against Walker. Moustakas is hitless in seven at-bats, Pham has one hit in six at-bats, and Votto has one hit in two at-bats.
Greene made his major league debut this season on April 10 after making the opening day roster for the Reds. He’s part of the Reds future and has had some solid starts this season that show it. But his season numbers indicate there’s still room for improvement. In most recent start, against the Cubs, Greene gave up three runs in four innings of work. In his second to last start, against the Dodgers, he gave up six runs in five innings and before that he gave up four runs in five innings against the Brewers.
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Tuesday, July 5, 2022: RHP Max Scherzer (5-1, 2.54 ERA) vs. LHP Nick Lodolo (1-2, 5.52 ERA)
After making two rehab starts for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies, Scherzer pronounced himself ready to rejoin the Mets rotation Tuesday night against the Reds. It will be his first major league start since May 18, when he exited early with an injured oblique. In his last full start that wasn’t cut short by injury, Scherzer gave up one run in seven innings against the Mariners. Scherzer has faced the Reds nine times in his career. He has a 1.84 ERA in 58 2/3 innings against them.
Like Greene, Lodolo is also a rookie, having made his major league debut this season. He made three starts for the Reds in April before going on the injured list on April 28 with a lower back strain. Returning to the major leagues to face Max Scherzer must be one of the toughest ways to come off the injured list. Lodolo’s last start was arguably the best of his three starts, as it was his longest outing (5 2/3 innings) and he gave up only one run.
Wednesday, July 6, 2022: TBD vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.53 ERA)
Even with the return of Scherzer, the Mets rotation is still a bit depleted at the moment. Until Bassitt returns from the Covid-IL and Peterson returns from paternity leave, the Mets will continue to need spot starters. Wednesday would line up with Peterson’s spot in the rotation, assuming he returns from the paternity list in three days as expected.
Ashcraft is the final rookie starter facing the Mets this series. He made his debut on May 22 and has started eight games for the Reds this season. Ashcraft’s last start was a poor one, as he only made it through 2 1/3 innings against the Cubs, giving up seven runs in the process.
Prediction:
The Mets have the pitching advantage in this series, especially since they are missing Castillo, the Reds’ best starter. As long as the Mets don’t succumb to their usual struggles against rookie pitchers, there’s no reason they can’t sweep this series.
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