Hot Dog Contest Odds: Booking Joey Chestnut Bets More Art Than Science

Competitive eating legend Joey Chestnut set a new world record last July by eating 76 hot dogs and buns (HDB) in 10 minutes in the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest at Coney Island.

That is not a typo.

Chestnut ate 76 hot dogs and buns in the amount of time it takes you to cook bacon.

The Nathan’s contest has proven to be a popular wagering event across the country since the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) was struck down in May 2018. Multiple American sportsbooks are dealing bets on the gluttonous event in a handful of states with Chestnut’s consensus number at O/U 74.5 o-135.

“We’re going to get a number up this weekend in Colorado and New Jersey,” Westgate SuperBook executive director John Murray told NESN. “You start by looking at the number of HDBs he ate the last few years and go from there. He’s certainly not falling off given his recent form. No one is pushing him, so he’s basically competing against himself. So you have to look at his record and think about what his goal is.”

I know what you’re thinking: What kind of wackos bet their hard-earned money on how many hot dogs somebody will eat? Well, one gaming industry analyst estimated that Americans will collectively wager almost seven figures on the men’s and women’s events this coming Fourth of July.

And don’t think for one second that respected bettors won’t get involved.

“The wise guys love to bet the ‘Under’ anytime the public loves the ‘Over,'” Murray explained. “They love to bet that something will not happen. So if we set the number too high, you’ll find out pretty quickly.

“Some sharps will go for the arbitrage play. They’ll go ‘Under’ 78.5 HDBs with us and ‘Over’ 73.5 HDBs with somebody else. Those arbitrage bettors don’t care if it’s the Super Bowl or if it’s two guys shoving hot dogs in their mouths, they’ll go for a middle if it’s available.”

As mentioned above, multiple shops are dealing Chestnut’s O/U at 74.5. But given the way he’s performed over the last two years with 75 and 76 — he also told VSiN on Thursday morning he’s wolfed down 80 in training sessions — that number seems a little low, doesn’t it?

“We’ll probably start at 76.5 because his focus will be on breaking his own record,” Murray said.

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