Visual Studies Workshop/Getty Images
The Great Depression was the worst economic period in US history.
It lasted roughly a decade: from 1929, the year the stock market crashed, to 1939, when the US started mobilizing for World War II. Industrial production fell by nearly 47% and gross domestic production (GDP) declined by 30%. Almost half of US banks collapsed, stock shares traded at a third of their previous value, and nearly one-quarter of the population was jobless — at a time when unemployment insurance didn't exist.
While the stock market crash of 1929 marked the start of the crisis, it wasn't — contrary to popular belief — the sole reason for it. Many other factors combined to create the Great Depression, from ill-timed tariffs to misguided moves by the young Federal Reserve. "The crash was not a cause, but a triggering event," says Barry M. Mitnick, a professor of business administration and of public and international affairs at the University of Pittsburgh's Katz Graduate School of Business.
But periods of economic contraction, and economic growth, are natural to the business cycle. The average US recession since World War II lasted 11 months. The recession in the mid-2000s, dubbed the Great Recession, lasted 18 months. However, the Great Depression ravaged the economy for roughly a decade, from 1929, the year the stock market crashed, to 1939, when the US mobilized its economy for World War II.
While the stock market crash of 1929 officially marks the start of the crisis, "the crash was not a cause, but a triggering event," says Barry M. Mitnick, a professor of business administration at the University of Pittsburgh's Katz Graduate School of Business. The Great Depression's causes aren't entirely dissimilar to those of a typical recession, though compounded on a grander scale and exacerbated by ill-timed tariffs and misguided moves by a young Federal Reserve.
Yet, if the causes of the Great Depression can be seen in other recessions, is it possible for the economy to fall into another depression?
As anyone who's read "The Great Gatsby" or seen "Chicago" knows the period popularly called the "Roaring Twenties" preceded the crash. It marked a period of exorbitant economic growth. Between 1922 to 1929, the gross national product grew at an average annual rate of 4.7%, while the unemployment rate dropped from 6.7% to 3.2%. Total wealth in the US more than doubled, though most of that growth was experienced by the wealthiest Americans. Individual Americans also started investing in the market in a big way.
But all was not as roaring as it seemed. Consumers spent outside of what they could afford, and companies over-produced to keep up with this demand. Financial institutions became heavily involved in stock market speculation. In some cases, they created subsidiaries that offered their own securities. Brokers secretly sold their own stocks — what would be a clear conflict of interest today.
Weak regulations had opened the way for a period of wild speculation on stock exchanges. Being "in the market" was the "in" thing, but many investors weren't making choices based on research or fundamentals — they were just gambling that the stock would keep going up.
Even worse, many people bought shares on margin, generally needing just 10% of a stock's price to make a purchase (not realizing they'd be on the hook for the whole amount if the price fell). That, in turn, inflated prices, with shares selling for more money than justified by their companies' actual earnings.
Still, the stock market stubbornly kept on climbing. That is, until October 1929, when it all came tumbling down.
Catching on to the market's overheated situation, seasoned investors began "taking profits" in the autumn of 1929. Share prices started to falter.
Prices first crashed on Thursday, Oct. 24, 1929, when the markets opened 11% lower than the previous day. After this "Black Thursday," the market rallied briefly. But prices fell again the following Monday. Many investors couldn't make their margin calls. Wholesale panic set in, leading to more selling.
"The system fell back on itself like a house of cards," says Mitnick.
From 1929 to July 1932, the market lost more than 85% of its value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank from a 1929 high of 381.17 to as low as 41.22 in 1932.
And it caused other simmering economic problems to come to a boil.
Mass production powered the 1920s consumption boom. But it also led to overproduction on the part of many businesses. Even before the crash, they started having to sell goods at a loss.
A similar crisis was occurring in agriculture. During World War I, farmers had bought more machinery to boost production — a costly move that put them in debt. But, in the post-war economy, they ended up producing far more supply than consumers needed. Land and crop values plummeted.
It all resulted in a drop in prices, both agricultural and industrial, which decimated profits and hurt already over-extended enterprises.
During periods of economic recession, consumers stop spending, which forces companies to cut production. With less output, companies start laying people off, raising the unemployment rate. A healthy unemployment rate in the US hovers between 3% to 5%. During the peak of the Great Depression, the unemployment rate peaked at 24.9% in 1933 — 12.8 million Americans out of a population of 125.6 million — and it was still as high as 17.2% in 1939.
Bettmann/Getty Images
During the Great Depression and years after, the brunt of the responsibility for the crisis was placed on the private sectors, banks irresponsibly letting their reserves get too low. This was until 1963, when economists Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz published a study that revealed monetary policy from the Fed was largely to blame.
In 2002, Ben Bernanke, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, said as much. "I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again," Bernanke said in an address during Friedman's 90th birthday.
By keeping interest rates low in the early to mid-1920s, the Fed contributed to the heady expansion. Then, after the crash, it did just the opposite of what economists would advise today: Instead of lowering interest rates, the Fed raised them, doubling them in 1931 from their pre-Crash levels. The idea was to discourage lending and borrowing — the "wild speculating" that encouraged the market to bubble, then burst.
The Fed also followed the "liquidationist" policy of then-Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon, a policy in which the central bank stands aside and lets troubled banks collapse. Theoretically, a stronger, sounder banking system would emerge. The policy ended up taking out smaller banks, not necessarily bad banks. By 1933, 11,000 of them had failed, wiping out the savings of millions.
Ultimately, the decrease in the money supply led to deflation. That, in turn, caused sky-high increases in real interest rates, which choked off any chances of companies investing or expanding.
President Herbert Hoover's response to the economic crisis was tardy. A believer in minimal government intervention, which he called "rugged individualism," Hoover considered direct public relief character-weakening. He did eventually start spending and launched lending and public works projects. Still, according to many economists, it was too little, too late.
Historical/Getty Images
As demand declined, big business and agriculture, feeling the effect of cheap goods from abroad, lobbied for protection. Congress obliged with the United States Tariff Act of 1930, aka the Smoot-Hawley bill, which raised tariffs on foreign products by about 20%.
Multiple countries retaliated with their own tariffs on US goods. The inevitable result was a trade melt-down. In the next two years, US imports fell 40%.
No markets abroad. No demand at home. Small wonder that economic activity ground to a standstill.
When Franklin D. Roosevelt became president in 1933, he quickly began pushing through Congress a series of programs and projects called the New Deal. How much the New Deal actually alleviated the depression is a matter of some debate — throughout the decade, production remained low and unemployment high.
Bettmann/Getty Images
But the New Deal did more than attempt to stabilize the economy, provide relief to jobless Americans and create previously unheard of safety net programs, as well as regulate the private sector. It also reshaped the role of government, with programs that are now part of the fabric of American society.
Among the New Deal's accomplishments:
New Deal legislation also ushered in a new era of government regulations — and the underlying concept that even a free-enterprise system can use some federal oversight. Milestone measures include:
"The biggest legacy is a change in the view of government's responsibilities — that it should take an active part in addressing economic and social problems," says Aleksandar Tomic, program director of Master of Science in applied economics at Boston College.
Graphic Artis/Getty Images
"The highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression" screamed headlines in April 2020, when the jobless level hit 14.7% of the US population. Since the initial spike, unemployment rates have dropped back to healthy rates, sitting at 3.6% as of May 2022.
<iframe src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=QpuX&width=600&height=475" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="overflow:hidden; width:600px; height:525px;" allowTransparency="true" loading="lazy"></iframe>
Even with unemployment rates back at healthy levels, murmurs of an upcoming recession are growing as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 enter bear market territory. The Fed is also raising interest rates to stem rising inflation, risking a recession.
But could there be another Great Depression?
Though there's by no means a consensus, many economists argue that another such catastrophe, at least one caused by internal factors, is unlikely. That's largely because the contemporary federal government can draw on many more policy and monetary tools, ranging from unemployment compensation to easing of the money supply.
As, indeed, it has done. Take the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. It too was kicked into high gear by a financial-market crisis, the subprime loan meltdown. But the Fed quickly slashed interest rates. And thanks in large part to a massive government bailout of the banking, insurance, and automobile industries, and an $800 billion-plus stimulus package, the downturn officially lasted less than two years. The economy recovered — albeit sluggishly — and eventually sparked a record-breaking bull market.
Though economic downturns may trigger memories of the Great Depression, nowadays, says Brad Cornell, managing director of Berkeley Research Group, "we know enough and can respond quickly enough so that these sorts of endogenous downward spirals are not going to happen again."
