Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Model Preview
The Memphis Grizzlies are looking to close out their first-round playoff series tonight with the Minnesota Timberwolves, as they hit the road with a 3-2 series lead.
Ja Morant and the Grizzlies were able to sneak out a 111-109 victory in Game 5 to take the series lead back to put them on the brink of advancing. Morant led all scorers with 30 points, while Karl-Anthony Towns posted 28 in the losing effort for the T-Wolves. The Timberwolves actually shot better from the floor than the Grizzlies did, but a big fourth-quarter where Memphis outscored Minnesota by 13 points was the difference.
Memphis Grizzlies (3-2) | Minnesota Timberwolves (2-3)
Date: 04/29/2022 | Time: 09:00 PM
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota| Venue: Target Center
Spread Open: Grizzlies -1/ T-Wolves +1 | Current: Grizzlies -1.5 (-108)/T-Wolves +1.5 (-112)
Game Total Open: 228.5 | Current: 229
Moneyline Open: Grizzlies -115/ Timberwolves -105 | Current: Grizzlies -120/ Timberwolves +102
All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Memphis Grizzlies +(1200
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Minnesota Timberwolves +16000
This series has been one of the more interesting ones to watch in the entire first round, with the Grizzlies entering as sizeable favorites, but the Timberwolves sticking around and keeping this closer than a lot of people expected and arguably should be leading the series. The two teams have alternated wins over the last three games and the Grizzlies have really shown how deep they can be on offense, with Brandon Clarke playing a big role as this series has progressed.
The 6’8 forward dropped 21 points in Game 5 and was a monster on the glass, adding 15 rebounds to lead all players. The Grizzlies outrebounded the Timberwolves by 11 and that ultimately was one of the biggest differences in Game 5. The Timberwolves have the talent level to keep Game 6 close, especially on home court, but blowing a lead late (again) in Game 5 could have been the dagger in this Minnesota team.
The SportsGrid betting model is pointing in that direction giving the Grizzlies a 68.53% win probability for tonight’s Game 6. The line hasn’t had much movement for either the total or spread, but the model really likes the Grizzlies on the moneyline tonight and is grading that out as a five-star play. Memphis should be able to finish this series off tonight, which puts us in agreement with exactly what the model is giving us.
SG Betting Model Win Probability: Memphis Grizzlies (68.53%) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (31.47%)
SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: MEM 5 Stars
SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: MEM 4 Stars
SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: UNDER 1.5 Stars
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