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Conservative members of the UK Parliament are continuing to plot against Prime Minister Boris Johnson, fearing a wipeout at the next election if he remains leader.
Though tensions have cooled — in part because of the war in Ukraine and changes to Johnson's top team — pockets of resistance have persisted, with leadership rivals canvassing support in stealth mode.
One MP commissioned private national polling, which is being shown to a small group of other MPs and appears to illustrate a disaster scenario in which the party loses power in a landslide.
That contrasts with the official line in recent weeks: that the prime minister's poll ratings had stabilized as "partygate" receded and Johnson took a prominent international role responding to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The private polling seen by Insider was carried out more than a month after JL Partners released research that also suggested dire prospects for the Conservatives should an election be held soon.
The polling also found a personal distaste for Johnson, who received dire ratings on issues including trustworthiness, competence, patriotism, and ability to take decisions.
Would-be rebels are regrouping, sources told Insider, after losing momentum from the start of the year when the extent of law-breaking parties in Downing Street was first becoming public.
Johnson has planned a dinner for all Tory MPs on Tuesday night, several invitees told Insider, at a hotel in central London. It appears designed to improve his standing among backbenchers ahead of the local elections in May.
Numerous MPs, however, told Insider they weren't planning to go or were less than enthusiastic about the prospect of spending an evening with Johnson.
Several Tories, who spoke with Insider on the basis of anonymity, said they expected the leadership issue to resurface later this year, triggered by the findings of a police investigation into the lockdown parties or by a poor showing at the local elections.
Others suggested that Johnson's approach to digital communications, including news about him getting briefings on WhatsApp, could further undermine him in a planned public inquiry into his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Though one backbencher confidently said "the coup is dead — we killed it," others suggested challengers were merely biding their time.
Potential candidates, including Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt, and the Foreign Affairs Committee chair, Tom Tugendhat, were "discreetly" continuing to build support, sources said.
Sunak has faced criticism from backbenchers for not doing enough in this week's spring statement to address the cost-of-living crisis. Insider has previously reported his waning popularity among colleagues.
One MP said Cabinet ministers were also suffering from taint by association, saying: "If you work at the zoo, you get covered in shit."
Several backbenchers suggested it would take very little for the febrile environment of January and early February to return to Westminster.
A senior Tory estimated that the number of letters of no confidence was still "hovering at around 50," despite some colleagues such as Andrew Bridgen having withdrawn theirs. A vote of no confidence would be triggered if 54 letters were submitted.
Another senior Tory said there was a "Cold War of the Tory party," with supporters and critics in a standoff against each other. He added: "The prime minister is only as good as his next election."
A serving minister told Insider the party was split into three: one-third staunch supporters, one-third undecided, and the other third against Johnson.
"If he can't restore that trust, he can't be a leader," the minister said.
A backbencher from the 2019 intake described Johnson's standing as tenuous "even with the backdrop of Ukraine."
"We changed prime minister in World War II and the Gulf War — I don't think you can use the current situation as an excuse to do nothing," the backbencher said, adding, "Colleagues are in denial if they think that."
