The West should arm Ukraine "to the teeth," says Poland’s foreign minister.
Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified aggression against Ukraine is a watershed moment for the international community. A peaceful nation — one that had been formally reassured that its borders would be respected, that it would not need nuclear weapons to protect itself against a foreign invasion and that it could hand its nuclear arsenal over to Russia — has now been invaded by that same Russia. Its troops intentionally target Ukrainian civilians. Entire Ukrainian cities are razed to the ground. Thousands of defenseless women and children have been killed and millions have fled the country.
But Russia is attacking not only Ukraine, its innocent civilians, residential areas, nuclear plants and other targets of non-military significance — it is destroying an entire institutional system designed to protect the world against unprovoked wars, including in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in which Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal. Russia is supposed to be a pillar of this system, having not only signed the Budapest Memorandum but served as a founding power of the United Nations Charter, the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and the Paris Charter for a New Europe of 1990.
Today, Russia is blocking the institutions founded by these accords and it is preventing them from fulfilling their duty of intervening when peace is threatened. Ukraine is bleeding, but the entire institutional world order is wounded and dysfunctional.
If Russia becomes victorious in its war against Ukraine, the use of force will gradually become a new standard in international politics. The desire to redraw maps and to expand territorial holdings is becoming increasingly widespread across the globe. Thus, our common aim should be to deny Russia success in its war against Ukraine and to render its aggression a strategic failure.
The greatest security crisis of our time requires us to think big to succeed. The United States can lead this effort and help the world to restore peace and the integrity of our institutions.
Here is a plan for victory:
First, Ukraine should be provided with all the weapons it needs to fight back against the Russian aggressor. President Vladimir Putin seeks no compromises. He attacked Ukraine, driven by his desire to resurrect the Russian empire. What he demands from Ukraine is its unconditional surrender, and even if he is now unable to achieve this end, he will not simply concede. He will continue to sow death and destruction to weaken Ukrainian morale. The only way the international community can influence his calculus is to arm Ukraine to the teeth, rendering his goals unachievable.
Second, the United States’ allies throughout the world must increase their investments in deterrence and defense. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine proves its increasing aggressiveness and decreasing predictability. The U.S. should launch a rapid rearmament of its allies and partners, including Ukraine, and incentivize it with a new lend-lease program, similar to the one the United States introduced during World War II.
Third, NATO should immediately boost its forward military presence on its Eastern flank in Europe. It should be seen not only as a move that bolsters the credibility of our deterrence capabilities, but should be presented to Russia as a response to its complete disregard for its own commitments to maintaining peace in Europe.
Fourth, Putin should have no illusions about how long sanctions will remain in place. The sanctions should not be lifted until Russia withdraws from all territory within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, recommits to the provisions of the Budapest Memorandum and pays war reparations.
Fifth, the costs of this war must be devastating for Russia from more than just a financial perspective. The international community must also hold responsible those who enabled this war of aggression and its criminals of war. We put war criminals on trial after the war in the former Yugoslavia, and we cannot allow the perpetrators of war atrocities in Ukraine to go unpunished. After all, in a rules-based order, all states are equal and all are accountable to the same set of laws.
Finally, the international community must prepare a plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine. There are billions of dollars available in the confiscated assets of Russian oligarchs who supported and financed Putin’s aggressive policies. We must also offer the millions of innocent Ukrainian war refugees the prospect of a better future in their country — a future in which their dreams can be realized. To do so, we need to integrate into Europe a Ukraine that is whole, free and — hopefully — at peace.
Only then will the failure of Russia’s aggression have a deterring effect on a global scale. Every potential aggressor should think twice before it decides to attack another sovereign country in the future. Defeating this policy of aggression will also help to restore the founding cause of the U.N. and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
If we allow the return of wars of aggression into the foreign policy toolboxes of states, then interstate conflict will become the norm once more, and the rules-based international order will be lost, together with its institutions. That would be a loss that would extend far beyond Ukraine or Europe; it would impact the whole world.
