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March Madness is back, and if you need help filling out your brackets, you could do worse than listening to the advice of ESPN's gambling expert, Chris "The Bear" Fallica.
Fallica appeared on the "ESPN Daily" podcast with host Pablo Torre and broke down the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. He also made his Final Four picks, including a couple of surprises.
One of his key strategies appears to be going against trendy picks. That is, when the public zigs, he zags.
Here are The Bear's picks and why he picked them.
The Kansas Jayhawks are the only 1-seed that Bear has going to the Final Four. Fallica cited the weak competition in the region.
"Kansas has the weakest bracket, which means it's either Kansas or chaos," Fallica said. "You've got a 2-seed in Auburn. They've been terrible away from home. You've got a 3-seed in Wisconsin who [Johnny] Davis is either still hurt or running on fumes. You've got a 4-seed in Providence, the luckiest team in the country."
Bear also noted that 5-seed Iowa has become a trendy long-shot pick in the Midwest (Iowa has been picked in 12.1% of all ESPN brackets to reach the Final Four). However, he noted that fans might be overrating their recent dominant run in the Big Ten tournament.
"Iowa is a team that didn't have very many quality wins at all throughout the year," Fallica said. "Then they got hot in the Big Ten tournament. Had a miraculous buzzer-beater to beat Indiana. And now people are picking this team to get to the Final Four. That's a tall ask for a team that has Kansas as the 1-seed in its region, and Davidson in a 5-12 game who plays defense, is physical, can slow the game down, which we will see if Iowa can win that type of game."
Bear is sticking with Tennessee because they have already beaten 1-seed Arizona this season and despite the Vols being a trendy Final Four pick.
"I have been very high on Tennessee for a long time," Fallica said. "I now am getting very concerned at the number of people getting on the Tennessee bandwagon after they just ripped through the SEC tournament ... Hopefully, the weight of the bandwagon won't wear them down."
Tennessee did lose to 2-seed Villanova earlier this season, but Fallica called that game "fluky" and thinks the Vols could get some revenge in a rematch.
Bear did not explain why he is picking UCLA, but instead, he noted why he would not pick 1-seed Baylor. Bear cited the team's injuries and thinks the Bears are being overrated based on their performance last year as national champs.
"Baylor is the 1-seed I want no part of," Bear said. "This team is nowhere near as good as the team last year."
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Gonzaga, the defending runner-up, is the betting favorite to win the championship and the most popular Final Four pick in brackets. While Bear thinks the Zags will be fine if they reach the Elite 8, he doesn't see them getting past the second round against Memphis, saying they look "vulnerable."
"Gonzaga did not get any favors in this draw," Fallica said. "They could face a Memphis team in the second round, which has freaks on the team. We saw last year how much Baylor gave Gonzaga fits in that national title game. They struggled with Baylor's physicality, and Memphis is a team with physical, freak athletes."
Bear notes that even if Gonzaga gets past Memphis, they have another potential tough matchup in the next round against either Arkansas or UConn.
"Gonzaga's road to the Elite 8 is not an easy one," Fallica said. "Probably the most difficult, I would say, to get to the Elite 8."
As for Memphis as a Cinderalla pick, Bear says there is always one, and, "Why can't it be Memphis?"
You can listen to the entire episode here:
