The National Retail Federation forecasts 6% to 8% growth in annual retail sales in 2022, reaching between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion excluding restaurants, gas stations and car dealers. This compares to 14% annual growth in 2021, the biggest jump in more than 20 years. "We should see durable growth this year given consumer confidence to continue this expansion, notwithstanding risks related to inflation, COVID-19 and geopolitical threats," said Matthew Shay, chief executive of the NRF, in the release. Non-store and online sales are expected to climb between 11% and 13% to a range of $1.17 trillion to $1.19 trillion. The NRF also forecasts 3.5% GDP growth for the year. "Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF has slumped 21.6% over the past year. The Amplify Online Retail ETF is down 57.3%. And the benchmark S&P 500 index has gained 7%. See also: Here’s how retailers are tackling the delivery challenges that come with skyrocketing e-commerce sales post-COVID
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