Famed political theorist envisions Russian defeat in Ukraine -- and how we'll know it's over
Famed political theorist Francis Fukuyama remains optimistic about Ukraine's chances against Russian aggression -- and what that would mean for liberal democracies around the world.
Fukuyama, who developed the “end of history” thesis, believes Russia is headed for near-term defeat, and he told the Washington Post's Greg Sargent that loss would do great damage to right-wing authoritarian populists like Donald Trump.
"Russia does not begin to have a large enough military to occupy Ukraine and bring Ukraine to a point where they’d make that kind of concession," Fukuyama said. "This is a country with a population of over 40 million, and Putin has already committed the vast bulk of his military."
"It’s extremely costly for the Russians to keep up this kind of siege," Fukuyama said. "Every single day, they lose a large number of armored vehicles, men, supplies. The morale in the Russian army appears to be extremely low."
Fukuyama envisioned what that defeat might look like, and when Ukraine might know it has won.
"It’s possible that at a certain point it becomes a little bit like Stalingrad, when the Germans had to retreat from that city," he said. "They can’t resupply the forces that are in place, and either they’re forced to withdraw from positions they occupy, or the position just crumbles."
That defeat would send a message to other authoritarian leaders, Fukuyama argued.
"A moral clarity has been imposed on populist politics," he said. "Many of these populists, including Donald Trump, have been able to pretend they’re really tribunes of the people, that they’re channeling a democratic urge. But they’re also flirting with an open kind of authoritarianism. That authoritarianism has now been translated into horrible slaughter, where everybody can see that kind of politics leads to military aggression, the loss of innocent lives, and so forth."
"That’s the reason every one of them — except for Trump, evidently — has been trying to backtrack from the support they gave Putin," Fukuyama added.
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