Putin's 'best-case scenario' will still be 'terrible for Russia': columnist
In his weekend newsletter for the Bulwark, conservative journalist Jonathan Last suggested that there are few upsides now attached to Vladimir Putin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and -- while he may be victorious in subjugating the country -- it will be a hollow victory for him personally and devastating for in the long run for the Russian public.
As Last sees it, there are now multiple ways the invasion shakes out for the Russian president and none of them are likely what Putin had hoped for.
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According to the columnist, "If you want to go dark, here’s a plausible scenario:"
- Russia escalates in some manner—a nuke, chemical weapons, a strike on Poland—and NATO fractures in its response. Some members take a hard line others aren’t willing to adopt.
- NATO resolve weakens. Weapon shipments to Ukraine become more difficult.
- Ukrainian cities are eventually occupied.
- Putin declares victory and an “end” to the conflict.
- Some of the partners in the global sanctions regime go wobbly and move to ratchet back the pain.
As the conservative points out, the outlook afterward is grim for Russians.
"That’s probably the very best outcome Putin could hope for, and even this would be terrible for Russia," he wrote before predicting, "There would be a Ukrainian insurgency that would chew up the Russian military for months/years."
Outside of the armed resistance within Ukraine, he noted, "The bulk of sanctions would not lift."
"The Russian economy would come to resemble a failed state. NATO would harden the defenses of member states and possibly admit new members," he explained before writing, "Maybe Putin could survive this. But maybe not. And this is his best-case scenario."
You can read his piece and more here.