I know others will disagree with me, and that's fine. But to me, keeping that Lakers pick is the single most important thing to root for down the stretch when considering the sustainable success of this team. Having the 9th or 10th pick, and being able to use that asset, vs giving the 11th or 12th pick over to another team in our division who is already 16 games ahead of us in the standings is a big deal IMO. With that said, a reminder on the pick:
If it falls 1-10, the Pels get it
If it falls 11-30, Memphis gets it
Some draft lottery things to know, as well:
- If the Lakers finish 11th, in terms of lotto balls, the pick would have a 10.4% chance of jumping into the top 4 (7% if they finish 12th)
- If the Lakers finish 10th, there is still a 20% chance someone behind jumps them and the pick falls to 11th, thereby going to Memphis. So, finishing 10th still wouldnt guarantee we keep that pick. HOWEVER, if a few teams jump the Lakers and they finish 9th, the odds the Pels keep that pick jump up to 97%.
With that said, here is how it is as of March 7th, broken into tiers:
Lakers wont possibly finish worse than
1. Magic 16-49
2. Houston 16-48
3. Pistons 17-47
4. OKC 20-44
5. Indiana 22-44
Very unlikely to catch
6. Portland Trailblazers 25-38 (not the 6th worst record currently, but already tanking)
Teams to watch
7. Sacramento Kings 24-42 (16 games left, 8 home, 8 away, 5th toughest SOS remaining.... best case scenario is 32 wins IMO)
8. San Antonio Spurs 24-40 (18 games left, 11 home, 7 away, 22nd hardest SOS remaining.....best case scenario is 35 wins IMO)
9. New York Knicks 26-38 (18 games left, 9 home, 9 away, 19th hardest SOS remaining.....best case scenario is 35 wins IMO)
10. New Orleans Pelicans 27-37 (18 games left, 9 home, 9 away, 25th hardest SOS remaining.....best case scenario is 38 wins IMO)
11. Los Angeles Lakers 28-35 (19 games left, 6 home, 13 away, 2nd hardest SOS remaining.... median outcome is 34 wins IMO)
12. Washington Wizards 29-34 (19 games left, 7 home, 12 away, 23rd hardest SOS remaining, best case scenario is 39 wins IMO)
So, barring a miracle, I think we can cross off the Kings. Outside of that, you are rooting hard for the Spurs, Knicks, Wizards, Pelicans, and the Lakers opponent in every other game. Lebron is still Lebron, and it is hard to see them winning less than at least 5 or 6 games the rest of the way. But the Wiz and Pels should be able to jump them/stay ahead of them. That said, even if that happens the Lakers would still have to lose in the play-in and even then, there would still be a 20% chance someone jumps the Lakers and now that 11th pick is going to the Grizzlies. What is really needed is for one other team - either NY or SA - getting red hot and passing the Lakers as well. Spurs would be better, of course, because that would remove the scenario where the Lakers get hot in the play in and make the playoffs, thereby handing the 15th pick to the Grizz.
Anyway, I will keep this updated moving forward. For those who don't care, awesome for you. But once the season is over, I would venture to bet you will care a lot about getting a top 10 pick vs not, so why wait until then?!
