Clashing strengths in Necaxa vs. Toluca may create good betting value
Friday night’s Liga MX action gets underway with a meeting between two teams in desperate need of a win.
Necaxa hosts Toluca with both entering the match winless in their last three league contests. Overall, Necaxa is 2-2-4 and in 13th place with eight points. Toluca is five spots ahead with 10 points and a 3-1-3 record but goes into Friday’s match as the underdog.
Necaxa vs. Toluca Odds
Moneyline: Necaxa (-107), Toluca (+235), Tie (+295)
Double Chance: Necaxa or Tie (-420), Necaxa or Toluca (-370), Toluca or Tie (-135)
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook
Considering recent results, the tie holds excellent value.
Despite a slightly better record, Toluca actually has a worse scoring margin than Necaxa by one point. It’s due to a defense that allows an average of two goals per game.
Necaxa, on the other hand, defends better but doesn’t necessarily score enough to take advantage of such a leaky defense on the other side. They have just nine goals in eight games, and just one goal in their last three — none in their last two.
Against Toluca, Necaxa should be able to get back into the scoring column, but don’t expect a flurry of points. Meanwhile, Toluca won’t likely be able to score more than a goal itself. They’ve scored just one goal in each of their last four contests.
That puts excellent value on the -127 odds for under 2.5 goals, and slightly less but still good value on both teams scoring at -127 odds. If you’re feeling really good about it, you can get +440 odds on the game ending exactly in a 1-1 tie.
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