Here's how much Uncharted cost to make, and what it needs to earn to be considered a box office success. After lingering in development hell for a number of years, the Uncharted movie is finally hitting theaters. Based on the popular PlayStation video game franchise, the film stars Tom Holland as Nathan Drake and Mark Wahlberg as his mentor, Victor "Sully" Sullivan. The two adventurers team up to find treasure, going on a globe-trotting journey in the process.
Holland is coming off Spider-Man: No Way Home's record-breaking box office success, and the hope is Uncharted can launch another franchise for the young actor. The basic Uncharted premise lends itself to multiple sequels, but odds are there will only be followups if the first movie is a hit. Uncharted does face a bit of an uphill climb, raising questions about its ability to turn a profit at the box office.
The reported production budget for Uncharted is $120 million, which is a somewhat modest figure considering the plethora of delays and setbacks the project endured. Uncharted's budget is considerably smaller than similar title Jungle Cruise ($200 million), and is smaller than all of the Marvel Cinematic Universe films to release the past few years. Uncharted's budget is closest to the likes of Captain Marvel and Shang-Chi, which were reportedly around $150-200 million. When compared to recent video game adaptations, Uncharted was more expensive than Mortal Kombat ($55 million) and Sonic the Hedgehog ($85-90 million).
The general rule of thumb is a movie has to earn at least double its production budget in order to break even. With this in mind, the target number for Uncharted is around $240 million globally. Since the film is a theatrical exclusive, it doesn't have any other sources of revenue to lean on for the time being (i.e. Disney+ Premier Access). Sony is banking on Uncharted being a draw at the multiplex, and it will be interesting to see how it fares. Video game movies historically struggle to make much of an impact, with Mortal Kombat and Sonic the Hedgehog serving as outliers. Perhaps their success indicates the trend is turning in the opposite direction.
Naughty Dog's Uncharted games were noteworthy for their cinematic qualities, so they seemed tailor-made for the big screen experience. Unfortunately, Holland's latest hasn't been able to shake the video game curse, as early Uncharted reviews are negative. This could have an impact on its commercial performance, especially considering some viewers are still wary about going to the theater amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike No Way Home, Uncharted doesn't have a "must-see" factor that could hurt it. Additionally, the highly-anticipated The Batman opens in just a couple weeks, so casual audiences could be waiting for that. Uncharted will appeal to its fair share of viewers given the games' success, but it may struggle to be a crossover hit.
