With both teams in the top half of the Western Conference bracket, Wednesday night’s encounter between the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz could be a preview of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors sit second in the conference, while an icy start to the new year has forced the Jazz from the top spot down to fourth. The betting market has the Jazz installed as -1.5-favorite for tonight’s matchup, but our projections support that the visiting Warriors is the side to be on.
Warriors (41-13) vs. Jazz (33-21)
Date: Wednesday, February 9
Time: 10:00 P.m. ET
Vivint Arena
TV Coverage: ESPN, SportsNet RM, NBCS-BA, TSN3
Moneyline: Warriors +106|Jazz -124
Spread: Warriors +1.5 (-106)|Jazz -1.5 (-114)
Total: 224.5 Over (-110)|Under (-110)
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Warriors +460|Jazz +1,300
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.
SG Betting Model Win Probability: Warriors 70.96%|Jazz 29.04%
SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: Warriors – 5 Stars
SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: Warriors – 5 Stars
SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: No Rating
The Warriors have been torching their opponents recently, winning nine straight and averaging 116.1 points per game over that stretch. That scoring efficiency has been even more evident over their recent sample, as they have gone north of 120 points in three of their past four. Golden State’s been putting distance between themselves and their opponents, hitting 42.1 percent of their three-pointers over that four-game span.
That three-point efficiency is going to make it hard for the Jazz to keep pace, as their metrics have taken a nosedive over their recent outings. Utah is scoring on just 31.3 percent of shots from beyond the arc over their past three games and has taken a back-to-basics approach with scoring. The Jazz have relied on going inside, putting up at least 46 points in the paint in three straight, with a running average of 55.3 points per game. This season, the Warriors have been one of the best at defending interior scoring, allowing the fifth-fewest points in the paint per game. More importantly, if they continue to hit the three-ball as efficiently as they have, the Jazz won’t be able to keep pace with just two-point buckets.
Our algorithm gives the Warriors a substantive edge in tonight’s contest, projecting Golden State as 70.96 percent favorites. That’s a steep departure from the 48.5 percent implied probability of the +106 moneyline price. On that basis, we recommend backing the Warriors on the moneyline and against the spread. Both wagers are rated as five-star plays.
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