Boris’ claim that crime fell by 14% was wrong and it has actually increased

The government suggested crime had fallen when offences had in fact increased, the statistics watchdog has said.

The UK Statistics Authority opened an investigation after it received complaints around allegations the prime minister and the home secretary falsely claimed crime had fallen under their leadership.

The watchdog has since concluded the government had presented crime figures in a ‘misleading way’.

In the House of Commons earlier this week, Boris Johnson said ‘we have been cutting crime by 14%’.

Last week, a Home Office press release said the latest data showed ‘crime continues to fall under this government’.

The press release quoted Priti Patel as saying the figures demonstrated the government’s approach ‘is working’.

But the statistic quoted by the government neglected to include fraud and computer misuse.

When these offences are included, total crime between September 2019 and September 2021 – the period quoted – has actually increased by 14%.

In a letter to Alistair Carmichael, the Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman who raised the issue, the head of the UK Statistics Authority Sir David Norgrove said: ‘I agree that Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures of crime must be used accurately, and not misrepresented.

‘In this case, the Home Office news release presented the latest figures in a misleading way.

‘Likewise, the prime minister referred to a 14% reduction in crime, which is the change between the year ending September 2019 and the year ending September 2021.

‘This figure also excludes fraud and computer misuse, though the prime minister did not make that clear.

‘If fraud and computer misuse are counted in total crime as they should be, total crime in fact increased by 14% between the year ending September 2019 and the year ending September 2021.

‘We have written to the Home Office and to the offices of the prime minister and home secretary to draw their attention to this exchange.’

Mr Carmichael said: ‘This is a damning verdict from the official watchdog. Yet more distortions from Boris Johnson and his cabinet to play down the extent of crime.

‘When the government’s record on crime is so bad that both the prime minister and home secretary feel the need to fiddle the figures, it is clear we need a new approach.

‘The prime minister must come before parliament to apologise for his latest lie and set the record straight.’

Despite a fall in most crimes during coronavirus lockdowns, some are now reaching or exceeding pre-pandemic levels – with rises in some offences like fraud offsetting reductions seen elsewhere, the ONS said last week.

The figures also showed police recorded the highest number of rapes and sexual offences in a 12-month period, while separate Home Office data detailed how the proportion of suspects being taken to court has fallen to a new record low.

The Home Office news release twice presented statistics ‘to give a positive picture of trends in crime in England and Wales’ based on ‘a fall in total crime excluding fraud and computer misuse of 17% between the year ending June 2019 and the year ending September 2021’.

In both instances, it stated the exclusion.

But in two other places in the release and in the title it referred to a fall in crime without making clear ‘this is true only if fraud and computer misuse are excluded’.

The ONS bulletin included fraud and computer misuse in total crime.

These offences were then separated out to allow for comparisons with long-term data, and to show the rise in fraud and computer misuse.

The UK Statistics Authority works to ‘promote and safeguard official statistics to serve the public good’, including ‘regulating the quality and publicly challenging the misuse of statistics’.

It can intervene if it considers a politician or government department has misused or misrepresented figures and has not adhered to a code of practice.

The Home Office has been contacted for comment.

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