Forecasts morph into reality as tech metals fundamentals heat up

The world is at the start of an exponential upswing in demand for the suite of technology metals as a global top-down push for the energy revolution accelerates, Ryan Castilloux, managing director of Adamas Intelligence, tells The Northern Miner.

He says that despite the figures coming off a lower base in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, China and the European Union saw exponential demand growth for critical minerals in the first five months of the year despite the rolling shutdowns last year.

China and the European Union saw exponential demand growth for critical minerals in the first five months of the year

“Coming into 2021, with the change of administration in the US, we now see the US recommitting itself to the Paris Climate Agreement and laying out its aggressive targets for electrification of vehicles in the decade or two ahead.

That adds even further strength to the narrative coming out of last year and gives us confidence that we’re now really at the beginning of strong, steady growth for both the bouquet of battery metals and materials but also other rare metals, including rare earth elements that stand to benefit from ongoing electric vehicle demand growth,” says Castilloux.

According to Castilloux, the move from prior projections about future demand growth has been so strong, it is, in fact, overshooting those forecasts.

“We’re seeing a lot of yesterday’s projections coming to fruition, and in most or all cases, I would say, likely exceeding the projections, given the top-down push that we see in key markets like China, Europe and the US, where governments have gotten behind electrification. They are pushing it forward, rather than simply allowing the market to grow organically, which was probably more of an accurate reality five years ago or so.”