Bulgaria: Analysts Forecast 1-Percent Margin between GERB and TISP in Case of Early Elections

Recent political developments suggest that new early elections are increasingly on the agenda. What are the Bulgarians’ voting intents and how many people would go to the polls if the new elections were in the summer?

GERB would receive about 21.1% of the vote, and "There Is Such a People" (TISP) about 20.3%. BSP are again the third political force with 16.5%, followed by Democratic Bulgaria with 11.9%, MRF with 9.4% and Stand Up, Mafiosi Out with 5.9%.

These are the results of a survey funded and implemented jointly by bTV and Market Links. It was conducted among 1,053 people over 18 between 16 and 23 April 2021 by direct-personal interview and online questionnaire.

"There was a surprise in the April 4 election, this is the so-called protest vote, and we are seeing this trend in development at the moment. GERB remains the first political force, but by a very thin margin with the second political force", commented social analyst Dobromir Zhivkov.

There is also a high electoral mobilization: 60% of respondents said they would vote or declare it as a sure intention, but "there are still two and a half months until the election and that will affect the results." The percentage share of people who will go to the polls is higher than those who voted in the April 4 election.

"There is a very high degree of politicization in the Bulgarian society", Zhivkov also believes.

There is currently a high politicisation of society, and credit rating of the new parliament is twice as high as that of the previous one.

"We are seeing political optimism, people have cast their votes and they feel that they are represented politically. The policies now being shaped in parliament, not on the street or in the Council of Ministers," the analysts said, adding that the data were collected before lawmakers scuttled their session on Wednesday.