COVID cases will soar AGAIN in the Autumn despite hopes that Brits will be able to enjoy summer holidays, an expert has warned.
Despite the UK’s world-class vaccine rollout, coronavirus is a problem that isn’t just “going to go away,” warned Sir Ian Diamond.
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There will be another wave of infections come the Autumn, despite the fact that all adults will have had their vaccine by the summer.
The UK’s national statistician Sir Ian Diamond said he was in “no doubt” there will be a new Covid wave in the autumn.
England’s chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty also said there were still risks to reopening society and agreed UK will experience another surge of cases.
Sir Ian emphasised people need to understand how the data is moving forward and look at the impact of the “wonderful” vaccine rollout.
“But having said that, we need also to recognise that this is a virus that isn’t going to go away,” he told The Andrew Marr Show on BBC One.
“And I have no doubt that in the autumn there will be a further wave of infections.”
Asked if it is too early to know how much of the fall in infections across the UK is down to the vaccine rollout, he said there are a number of moving parts such as vaccines and restrictions.
Sir Ian told the programme: “I mean I would say though that this has been an incredibly impressive vaccine rollout, and we’ve been looking at antibodies in the population, and we’ve been scaling up our survey in order to be able to take many more blood tests so that we can look at the impact.
“And what we’re seeing is quite remarkable increases in the level of antibodies in the over-80s, and increasingly in the over-70s. So I’m very, very confident that the vaccine rollout is really starting to provide some real protection.
“At the other side we see very relatively high levels amongst young people which just shows how much of young people have been affected by the virus.
“I’d finally just say on this that there is a lot of regional variation, so we find 30% of London have antibodies whereas only 16% in the South West, so we need to recognise that as well.”
During the week, Prof Whitty said he would “strongly advise” against any move to shorten the timetable for easing lockdown restrictions.
Modelling considered by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has suggested that even under the most optimistic set of assumptions, at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths could occur.
Prof Whitty said: “All the modelling suggests there is going to be a further surge and that will find the people who either have not been vaccinated or where the vaccine has not worked.
“Some of them will end up in hospital and sadly some of them will go on to die.”
This comes as Neil Ferguson, one of the scientists who spearheaded the UK’s lockdown policies, believes most restrictions will be lifted by summer as around one third of population have already had their Covid jab.
He said he is “80 per cent sure” that Brits will be able to enjoy this summer as the vaccine rollout beats back Covid.
However, despite his 80 per cent prediction – he warned there remains a 20 per cent chance that mutating virus variants could derail the progress, reports The Observer.
“It is highly likely that we will have driven Covid down to very low levels of case numbers, and we can begin enjoying summer,” he said.
‘We will still need to monitor things very carefully and there has yet to be a proper discussion about what we do in autumn.
“Certainly, I think it is highly likely we will have to roll out a booster vaccine to protect against possible new variants.
“So, while I am optimistic overall, I still think there is a 20% chance things could go wrong – with the possible appearance of dangerous new variants which undermine immunity given by vaccines.”
Non essential travel remains suspended until May 17 – but ministers are still trying to work out whether it will be safe enough to bring back foreign holidays.
Spain, Cyprus and Greece have all said they would like to welcome back vaccinated Brits from May, and Turkey has said it will take holidaymakers even without the jab.
Downing Street are concerned however about the risks of letting Brits leave the country and potentially bringing the virus back in.
Britain is currently on course to emerge from lockdown after a jab rollout which has so far seen more than 23million people receive their first dose of the vaccine.
Schools have already returned and some restrictions have been lifted, with more changes due at the end of March and beginning of April.
Mr Johnson has been optimistic about the roadmap remaining on schedule – with some Tories even pushing for restrictions to lift even sooner.
