Before starting the NBA season, I examined the top-10 candidates to win the NBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) award from a betting perspective. FanDuel Sportsbook originally posted odds on up to 35 players to win the award, but now that we’ve reached the midpoint of the season, that list has been trimmed down to […]
The post NBA Rookie of the Year Award: Updated Odds and Analysis first appeared on SportsGrid.Before starting the NBA season, I examined the top-10 candidates to win the NBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) award from a betting perspective. FanDuel Sportsbook originally posted odds on up to 35 players to win the award, but now that we’ve reached the midpoint of the season, that list has been trimmed down to 25 players.
Below we’ll list the five players with the shortest odds and assess if anyone in the field can wrestle this award away from the frontrunning LaMelo Ball.
Even as the third pick in the draft, LaMelo Ball had the shortest odds (+440) to win ROY before the season. And after reviewing my preseason picks, I have no problem conceding that I came up empty with my preseason ROY projections.
If I had to do it all over again, I would still make the same play because, much like in parimutuel betting, the goal is to beat the favorite.
In my February update of the ROY race, I pronounced that Lamelo Ball would be this year’s winner. His odds were -125 then, and now his odds are even shorter at -550. Over the last month, Ball has increased his scoring average to 15.8 points per game. By February, he averaged 12.2 points per game, which was still enough to lead all rookies at the time. At this point of the season, Ball is almost a full point ahead of the second-highest rookie scorer, Anthony Edwards, who is averaging 14.9 points per game. Unfortunately for Edwards, his performances haven’t necessarily translated into wins for his Timberwolves team with the worst record (7-29) in the league. Contrast that with Ball’s team, the Hornets, who are (17-18), and in the thick of a playoff race as the seventh-seeded team in the Eastern Conference.
If you’re looking for a longshot to knock off Ball at the moment, it doesn’t help that the two players with the shortest odds behind him both plays on teams projected not even to finish high enough to qualify for the postseason play-in tournament, which will include teams seeded 7th through 11th. Immanuel Quickley, who has the fourth shortest odds on the board at +2400, was a player I targeted before the season to win the award. He’s averaging 12.2 points per game but only averages 18.8 minutes per game, while all three players ahead of him with shorter odds are averaging at least 29 points per game. I’ll take some solace in knowing that if this award were based on efficiency, Quickley would be much closer to the top of the board.
With Ball now a -550 favorite, this award is clearly his to lose at this time. And as long as the sports networks keep running his highlights reel, I don’t see any other player knocking him from his perch.
If you faded him as I did before the season, all I can say is that I hope you took a piece of him at -125 after my last update in February.
I know I did.
