Australian coal exporters have pivoted to target India, exporting almost 7 Mt to the country for 2020. With FOB Newcastle trading around $6/mt lower than RB1, this represents a clear threat to SA exporters. The other threat is of course Coal India’s ever-present plans to increase its own domestic production and railing of coal, although domestic supply to India’s power sector actually dropped 5% during 2020. Coal India is also mulling plans to diversify into aluminium smelting and solar power, so clearly the lack of focus is hampering ambitions.
