Christmas isn’t just for the NBA this year. The NFL spreads its holiday cheer in the form of an important NFC matchup in New Orleans. The Minnesota Vikings, clinging to playoff hopes, head to the Big Easy for a Christmas afternoon matchup with a Saints team still hoping to get the NFC’s top seed. Here’s […]
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Christmas isn’t just for the NBA this year. The NFL spreads its holiday cheer in the form of an important NFC matchup in New Orleans.
The Minnesota Vikings, clinging to playoff hopes, head to the Big Easy for a Christmas afternoon matchup with a Saints team still hoping to get the NFC’s top seed.
Here’s a betting preview for Friday afternoon’s Vikings-Saints matchup.
Minnesota Vikings at (-7) New Orleans Saints
Total: 51
BETTING TRENDS
As mentioned, the 6-8 Vikings are all but dead and need to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs. Minnesota is a borderline average 6-8 against the spread this year, too, but Mike Zimmer’s ability to cover has gone missing lately. The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games, although they are 4-2 against the number on the road this season. The Vikings have been fairly profitable as road underdogs, covering three of five instances and winning outright in a pair. It was just a year ago that Minnesota went into the Superdome and shocked the Saints in the playoffs, marking the second straight year they sent New Orleans packing. So, there is some recent success in the series. That being said, Minnesota is pretty banged up, especially on defense where Eric Kendricks is likely to miss another game. Minnesota allowed a season-high 199 rushing yards to the Bears last week and is now 0-3 ATS when allowing 150 rushing yards or more in a game.
Two weeks ago, the Saints had the inside track to the NFC’s No. 1 seed. A shocking loss to the Eagles followed by a far more unsurprising loss to the Chiefs leaves New Orleans with an uphill battle for the first-round bye. Sean Payton’s team is 7-6-1 ATS this season and just 3-3-1 at home without a full house packing the dome. Dating back to the start of the 2019 season, New Orleans is 6-2 straight-up as a home favorite of seven or more but just 3-5 against the spread. It is worth pointing out, however, three of those four ATS losses could be considered early-season games, which has been a bit of an issue for the Saints in recent years. To that point, New Orleans has been strong against the number in the second half of this season, covering five of their last seven.
PROPS
(via DraftKings Sportsbook)
First-half line, total
New Orleans -4.5, 25.5
First touchdown scorer
Alvin Kamara +450
Dalvin Cook +600
Justin Jefferson +1000
Adam Thielen +1000
Emmanuel Sanders +1100
Passing yards
Drew Brees over/under 249.5 yards
Kirk Cousins over/under 246.5 yards
Rushing yards
Alvin Kamara over/under 60.5 yards
Latavius Murray over/under 33.5 yards
Dalvin Cook over/under 82.5 yards
Receiving yards
Adam Thielen over/under 58.5 yards
Justin Jefferson over/under 65.5 yards
Emmanuel Sanders over/under 61.5 yards
Alvin Kamara over/under 45.5 yards
PICK
New Orleans -7
Maybe, just maybe, there’s a little value with the road team in these situations. They know they have to make a business trip on Christmas Day, and it’s not a huge deal and they come out a little more prepared than the team staying home.
But that only goes so far. The Saints are clearly the better team. New Orleans’ run defense is good enough to at least ensure Dalvin Cook runs wild. If that’s the case, you make Kirk Cousins a little more one-dimensional by taking away the play-action game. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings’ defense has been hit hard by injuries, most notably linebacker Eric Kendricks. That means we’re looking a big day for Alvin Kamara, which is fitting on Christmas.
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