Last weekend was great, but last weekend is over.
As you can already tell, I’m super selective when it comes to making picks. Some people prefer more volume and like to have a million balls in the air on a football weekend. You won’t get that here. I’ve always come from the school of isolating what you really, really like and rolling with that.
Let’s go to work.
Titans at Packers (-3, 55.5)
Packers -3 (-120)
It amazes me that people are talking themselves into a bet against Aaron Rodgers in this spot. The Green Bay Packers quarterback is playing the best football of his career with the best coach he’s ever had in Matt LaFleur. That deadly duo has combined to win 25 of 32 games together because LaFleur constantly puts Rodgers in situations where he can succeed. The two-time MVP has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (40 TDs, 4 INTs) and the Pack are getting ready to face a Titans’ pass defense that is bottom five in the league in almost every defensive passing metric. The betting market opened Green Bay -4 and the initial push came on Tennessee. I’ll gladly lay only three points at Lambeau on Sunday Night Football. Right team, right price.
LendingTree Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State (-4, 50.5)
Western Kentucky +4 (-110)
This Saturday showdown features two polar opposites. It’s an offensive team (Georgia State) against a defensive team (Western Kentucky) and the movement in the betting market is telling a story. Respected money has shown on the Hilltoppers from +4.5 to +3.5 at some sportsbooks. It’s pretty rare to see the market move toward a 5-and-6 football team in a bowl game, but here we are. The crazier move came on the total, which opened at 56 points and now sits at 50.5. Moves on Western Kentucky and the Under are certainly correlated and they definitely make sense. Georgia State isn’t going to be able to move the football at will like they did in the Sun Belt and WKU defensive lineman DeAngelo Malone is going to be a menace. He’s the best pro prospect in this game and he’ll be playing on Sundays soon. I’ll roll with the better defense to make enough plays and keep this one close.
Dolphins (-3, 47.5) at Raiders
Bills (-7, 46) at Patriots
Six-point teaser: Raiders +9 to Bills -1
If you’re new around these parts, a teaser is a bet that allows you to move the spread or total six points whichever way you want. You have to win all the bets in your teaser to cash the ticket. I stick to two teamers and love to tease through the most key numbers in football – 3 and 7 – to maximize my math.
The Miami Dolphins are the sexiest team in the NFL. They’ve overachieved from jump street, already winning nine games in a season where oddsmakers made their season win total only six. Bettors have been paying a premium on the Fish for the last month as they’ve morphed from the secret underdog into the hot shot favorite. This gives you added value on their opponents. I can take the Raiders at home from +3 through 4, 6, 7 and 8 up to +9. Sold.
For the other leg, it’s really tough to envision New England winning Monday night’s game against Buffalo. I’ll certainly tip my cap if Belichick can pull off the upset, but that undermanned roster is really catching up to the Pats. The Bills offense is firing on all cylinders and they’ll eventually pull away down the stretch with blossoming young quarterback Josh Allen. The teaser allows me to take Buffalo from -7 all the way down to -1. Just win, baby.
RECORD: (5-1, +3.9)
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