While Moff Gideon's actions in The Mandalorian season 2 finale may seem strange, Gidein choosing to lose his fight against Din Djarin makes sense.
The Mandalorian season 2 finale may have revealed the full extent of Moff Gideon's cunning. The episode revolves around Din Djarin and his assembled task force finally gathering together to save Grogu from Gideon and his forces - only to be rescued by the decidedly unexpected interference Star Wars' very own Luke Skywalker.
No secret has ever been made of Gideon's prowess in combining his intelligence and maliciousness potent effect - especially in his acquisition of the Darksaber through the Great Purge, and his seemingly continual ability to keep tabs on those who would track him down as a result of him possessing the weapon. That said, many questioned the plan that Moff Gideon appeared to have established for Din's rescue mission in the season 2 finale, as it appeared to need him to lose the fight with Mando in order for it to work. While it was certainly a cunning plan, it's also something of a confusing one, as it seems unlikely the Imperial leader would want to part ways with a powerful weapon and leave his fate in the hands of an angered Mandalorian.
However, this interpretation of events doesn't take into account one crucial detail: Moff Gideon appears to have known almost everything about Djarin's invading force, as he explains to Din just before the pair fight. Though he may have possessed some hope they could be dealt with simply by the Dark Troopers, it seems unlikely he wouldn't have been aware that a team containing Boba Fett and Bo-Katan Kryze could potentially dispatch anything sent at them. As such, it makes sense his mind made a viable backup plan; namely, to divide and conquer the forces coming after him. By losing to the fight against the Mandalorian, he would be able to split the group into two factions; Bo-Katan and anyone who supported her getting the Darksaber, and those whose priorities were instead to help and aid Djarin. This would theoretically place Kryze against both Mando and Boba Fett, which could have well resulted in them killing each other and saving the Moff from any further work.
Of course, this doesn't totally explain the fact that Moff Gideon does seem genuinely surprised that Djarin doesn't kill him upon besting him in their battle, but there are two possible explanations for this. The first is that the Imperial leader took a very risky bet, having seen the care the man clearly showed for Grogu, and the softer side The Child brought out of him. Moff may have theorized that Mando wouldn't kill him so long as he could rescue his ward, as it's fairly clear Din cares far more for the creature's safety than about revenge, which would ultimately prove very much true.
However, the second - and more likely - theory is that Gideon was genuinely willing to die to set up this scenario. It's a dramatic theory, to be sure, but also one that does make sense, given he'd technically achieved his goals by obtaining Grogu's blood. Since Thrawn has been shown to still be on the scene, Gideon's death may not be as detrimental to efforts to use Force-sensitive blood to do dark experiments as it would otherwise appear. Dying because a small green alien's adopted dad came to pick him up isn't the kind of death anyone in The Mandalorian is after, but in the larger scheme, it's perhaps an acceptable trade-off to Gideon in exchange for dispatching Kryze and bringing back order to the Galaxy.
