The Raiders are 2-5 at home heading in to Saturday night's Allegiant Stadium finale against Miami.
The Raiders bring down the curtain on Year 1 at the “Death Star” Saturday night, never expecting their new home to be the place their season went to die.
There are myriad reasons the Raiders will soon officially be eliminated from the playoff race. It could happen Saturday night when they host the Miami Dolphins, who are in the thick of the postseason picture at 9-5.
The Raiders, having lost four of of their last five, are 7-7 because they have been unable to defend their home turf at Allegiant Stadium, where they have a 2-5 record as opposed to 5-2 on the road.
Owner Mark Davis determined in August he would be a no-show for home games out of respect to the season-ticket holders who can’t attend due to the coronavirus pandemic. What nobody knew at the time was the Raiders would join him. It was Davis who on Aug. 22 stood before his team and proclaimed, “Welcome to the Death Star, where opponents’ dreams come to die.”
The beginning was stirring, a 34-24 win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night in Week 2. Other than that, the only good postgame vibes at their $2 billion home came from a 37-12 Week 12 win over the Denver Broncos when they had five takeaways.
Home is where Josh Allen led the Buffalo Bills to a 30-23 win that was more one-sided than the score indicated. It’s the place where Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers carved up the Raiders defense and the offense went stagnant during a week where the entire offensive line missed the week of practice for contact tracing.
It’s where Travis Kelce somehow got loose in the end zone to catch a 22-yard touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes with 28 seconds to play and prevent a season sweep of the Kansas City Chiefs, and was the location of a 44-27 clock-cleaning at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts that led to the firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther.
“A lot of things have happened to us in the last month or so. I’m not going to reiterate all those things,” Raiders coach Jon Gruden said Thursday. “We love our stadium . . yeah, we’d like to win in there. We’re playing a great team, one of the hottest teams in the league, and we’re going to have to pay our best game of the year to win.”
Away from Las Vegas, the Raiders handed the Chiefs their only loss of the season 40-32 at Arrowhead Stadium, taking a victory lap in chartered buses around the stadium. They beat the Cleveland Browns with frozen winds coming off Lake Erie. The Raiders won in Los Angeles when Isaiah Johnson broke up a pass on the last play of the game and in New Jersey on a miracle Derek Carr to Henry Ruggs III 46-yard touchdown pass with five seconds remaining.
Beating the Dolphins could allow the Raiders to relive those kinds of moments at their own venue and close their first year at Allegiant Stadium with a win.
“We don’t want to finish losing. We’ve got to show who we are,” cornerback Trayvon Mullen said. “We’ve got to show how tough we are. We’ve got to show that no matter the circumstance or the outcome or whatever it is that we’re going to go out and we’re going to play hard. We’re going to finish.”
The Raiders’ longshot playoff pathway goes like this — 1) They beat Miami and Denver; 2) Miami loses to Buffalo in Week 17; 3) Baltimore loses to the New York Giants and Cincinnati.
Four ways the Raiders can beat Miami and leave their final home game feeling as if they’re still in it:
The drive that ended when Derek Carr pulled up with a groin strain ended with a 23-yard field goal by Daniel Carlson. Later, with Marcus Mariota at quarterback, it happened again for another 20-yard field goal. It was the 19th and 20th red zone field goals the Raiders have kicked this season — the most in the NFL.
The Raiders defense has been much maligned and deservedly so, but if their own offense scored touchdowns at a higher rate in the red zone, they’d probably be going to the playoffs.
It won’t be easy against Miami, a team that leads the NFL in third down defense (32.5 percent).
Yes, that again.. And it’s huge this week, because Miami leads the NFL with 26 takeaways third in turnover margin at plus 10. They’ve got a rookie quarterback in Tua Tagavaiola who doesn’t take risks and takes care of the ball. The Raiders are in the bottom third in turnover margin at minus-6.
In the last five games, four of them losses, the Raiders have turned the ball over 12 times and are at minus-7. Carr has 15 turnovers this season (seven interceptions, eight lost fumbles). He’s expected to start but his mobility could be limited. Mariota had one interception in his debut against the Chargers.
Miami has two excellent corners in Xavien Howard, an NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate with nine interceptions, and Byron Jones, the former Dallas cornerback who the Raiders liked in a big way during free agency. It turned out the Dolphins wanted him more, to the tune of five years and $82.5 million with $57 million guaranteed.
Once Jones signed with Miami, the Raiders made Cory Littleton their big ticket item on defense.
With one of the worst defenses in the NFL, the last thing the Raiders can afford to do is give opponents second chances. And third chances. And fourth chances.
During their 1-4 streak, the Raiders have done just that, giving up an incredible 21 first downs by penalty and allowing the opposing offense to stay on the field. They did it five times each in losses and last week to the Chargers.
Miami is efficient offensively but not particularly explosive. Avoid the first downs by penalty and there might be a few punts in the future of A.J. Cole.
When Miami lost 34-31 to the Chiefs, tight end Travis Kelce caught eight passes for 136 yards and a touchdown. Darren Waller, named to the Pro Bowl this week, is on a hot streak of late statistically and has been Carr’s favorite receiver, targeted more than 28 percent of the time.
The Raiders other Pro Bowler, running back Josh Jacobs, last gained 100-plus yards on Nov. 15 against Denver with 21 carries for 112 yards. In his last four games (Jacobs didn’t play against the Jets because of a knee injury), Jacobs has 63 carries for 207 yards, averaging 3.3 yards per attempt. He’s 93 yards shy of a second straight 1,000-yard season and needs a jump in production to get there.
The running game that meant so much during the 6-3 start has gone dormant during their 1-4 stretch, and that’s no coincidence.
Waller and Jacobs have accounted for 18 of the Raiders’ 42 touchdowns in 14 games.
