ALL of England should go into Tier 4 today to stop a Covid surge from thousands of super-spreading Christmas gatherings, experts say.
24 million people in the south and east will be in the country’s strictest tier from 12.01am on Boxing Day – but some academics are demanding it be brought forward to today for the whole country.
Read our coronavirus live blog for the latest news & updates
And they say much more is needed to control the spread of a new mutant Covid.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed a highly infectious new South African strain has been found in the UK.
Officials at the Independent SAGE group have today issued a statement claiming the situation is “rapidly worsening” and “incredibly dangerous”.
They said: “Evidence is now strong that the new variant of Covid is significantly more infectious than previous strains.
“This is making a bad situation worse.
“Cases in all tiers are rising, even where the variant is still rare.”
Tiers 1 to 3 “are not able to contain the spread of the new variant”, they say.
Modelling from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine shows the mutation will account for 90 per cent of new cases by mid-January, it’s claimed.
“Christmas Day mixing of households indoors for prolonged periods of time, as allowed in Tiers 1 to 3 in England and across the devolved nations, sets the scene for thousands of super-spreading events,” officials from the group said.
“In the context of the new strain, this is incredibly dangerous.”
Instead, experts say, the Government must U-turn on plans for Christmas bubbles for the whole country – and “place all regions of England in Tier 4” now.
The group says the new variant – and the “potential emergence of others” – means a “complete re-think of all mitigation strategies” is needed.
And epidemiologists are backing calls to put the country back into lockdown – with some saying schools must shut once again.
Professor Giridhar Babu said models show that “all NHS regions are projected to experience a subsequent wave of Covid-19 cases and deaths” in the new year.
The third wave will peak in spring 2021 for London, the south-east and east of England, and in summer 2021 for the rest of the country, he claims.
“School closures in January 2021 may delay the peak and decrease the total burden in the short term,” he said.
“In order to reduce the peak ICU burden below the levels seen during the first wave, the most stringent intervention scenario with Tier 4 England-wide and schools closed during January, as well as two million individuals vaccinated per week, is needed.”
Meanwhile, Brit microbiologist Dr Arthur Hosie said all of England must face stricter measures.
“England should be in Tier 4,” he said. “Political arrogance will cost lives.”
Professor Christina Pagel, of University College London (UCL), said change must happen now.
In an interview with Times Radio, she said: “We are in an incredibly dangerous situation – if we just wait and let it spread to the north, where things are much more under control, then the whole country is on fire.
“I just feel like we have to stop it now and protect the north from the south.”
She added: “We’re constantly behind the curve.
“I think we have to put the whole country in Tier 4 today, especially in those Tier 2 areas around Tier 4 that are just going through the roof.
“Why are we letting people mix at Christmas? You’re just asking for trouble.”
Under the current plans, areas including Oxfordshire, Suffolk, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire will be put into even tighter restrictions from December 26.
Bristol, Gloucestershire, Somerset and Northamptonshire will go into Tier 3 too, and Cornwall and Hereforshire will be bumped up from Tier 1 to 2.
The changes will come into force on Boxing Day
Tier 3 – 4
Sussex
Oxfordshire
Suffolk
Norfolk
Cambridgeshire
Essex
Waverley in Surrey
Hampshire (apart from the New Forest) Portsmouth, Southampton.
Tier 2 – 3
Bristol
Gloucestershire
Somerset including N Somerset
Swindon
Isle of Wight
New Forest
Northamptonshire
Cheshire
Warrington
Tier 1 to 2
Cornwall
Herefordshire
An additional six million people will be in Tier 4 of the Government’s Covid-19 restrictions from Boxing Day.
This means a total of 24 million people will now be in Tier 4, or almost 43 per cent of the population of England.
Some 25 million – or 44.4 per cent of the country – will be in Tier 3.
This week, Mr Hancock gave an address to the nation about the changes.
He said: “We simply cannot have the kind of Christmas that we all yearn for.
“We have learnt that when it becomes a matter of when, it is better to act sooner.”
And he admitted the current tier system hasn’t worked on the mutation.
“Tier 3 is not enough to control the new variant. This is not a hypothesis, this is a fact,” he said.
“Just as we had got a tiered system in place that was able to control this virus we have discovered a new, more contagious virus – a variant that is spreading at a dangerous rate.”
Yesterday, the UK saw the highest rise in daily virus deaths since April.
Another 744 deaths were recorded, while 39,237 more infections were reported overnight.
