We’ve got a big one on tap Monday night in the AFC North. The Cleveland Browns are trying to prove they are for real as they host the Baltimore Ravens in Cleveland’s biggest game in years. Both teams are jockeying for position in the AFC playoff hunt, and that’s especially true for the Browns who […]
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We’ve got a big one on tap Monday night in the AFC North.
The Cleveland Browns are trying to prove they are for real as they host the Baltimore Ravens in Cleveland’s biggest game in years. Both teams are jockeying for position in the AFC playoff hunt, and that’s especially true for the Browns who could make a run at the division following Pittsburgh’s second loss Sunday night in Buffalo.
Here’s a betting preview for Monday night’s game.
(-3) Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Total: 45.5
BETTING TRENDS
The Ravens, it appears, have saved their season. Baltimore was able to power through its COVID-19 outbreak and a three-game losing streak with a win last week that improved them to 7-5. The Ravens are 6-5-1 against the spread, going 3-2-1 ATS away from home. Unsurprisingly, they have had the Browns’ number in recent years, winning eight of the last 10 matchups while covering in seven of those. The Ravens have cleaned up in the division, too, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven against the AFC North. Baltimore had been very good in primetime with Lamar Jackson under center, winning all four regular-season primetime contests he started. Really, though, going back to the playoffs last year, the Ravens have lost three of their last four games under the bright lights including losses to Kansas City and New England this year. They did get back on track last week against the Cowboys on a Tuesday night, for what that’s worth. The Ravens typically have cleaned up as road favorites, too. John Harbaugh’s team is 9-1 straight-up and 6-2-2 ATS laying points on the road in their last 10. That said, they’re just 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games as road favorites, all this year.
It’s kind of hard to believe, but the Browns are 9-3 and very much in the hunt for the North, especially with a Week 17 matchup looming against Pittsburgh. Cleveland is just 5-7 ATS, though, covering in three of six home games. Cleveland’s success typically has been tied to its running game. The Browns have rushed for at least 150 yards in five games this season, winning all of them but only by an average of seven points. In fact, Cleveland has a negative point differential this season despite its 9-3 record. The next best team with a negative point differential is Las Vegas, which has a 7-6 record, and there are five teams with losing records who have better point differentials than the Browns.
PROPS
First-half line, total
Baltimore -1.5, 23.5
First touchdown scorer
Nick Chubb +700
Kareem Hunt +900
Mark Andrews +950
Lamar Jackson +1000
Jarvis Landry +1100
Passing yards
Lamar Jackson over/under 195.5 yards
Baker Mayfield over/under 224.5 yards
Rushing yards
Nick Chubb over/under 78.5 yards
Lamar Jackson over/under 60.5 yards
J.K. Dobbins over/under 44.5 yards
Kareem Hunt over/under 44.5 yards
Gus Edwards over/under 30.5 yards
Receiving yards
Jarvis Landry over/under 59.5 yards
Mark Andrews over/under 45.5 yards
Marquise Brown over/under 41.5 yards
Rashard Higgins over/under 39.5 yards
PICK
Baltimore -3
It’s hard to get over that Cleveland point differential. Kevin Stefanski surely has the Browns going in the right direction, but they’re not quite there yet, and the Ravens are the sort of team that can quickly remind us all of that. This is also a tough time for Cleveland to be getting the Ravens, who are finally starting to win their battles against germs and injuries. The COVID outbreak appears to be a thing of the past, which obviously is good, especially for the Baltimore defense.
The reinforcements should go a long way in slowing down the Cleveland rushing attack, which should be the top priority. When the Browns can’t get the ground game going, everything seems to struggle, and that might be even more prevalent Monday night with forecasts calling for heavy wind gusts.
This is a game the Ravens need more, and they should find a way to get it done.
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