An analysis found dozens of NHS hospitals could run out of beds when faced with normal winter demand on top of coronavirus.
More than 100 NHS trusts in England could be overwhelmed this winter if they faced a second wave of coronavirus on top of normal seasonal demand, an analysis has found.
The analysis compared the number of beds needed for each trust between December 2019 and January 2020 on top of the beds needed at the height of the pandemic in April.
The comparison, carried out by the Guardian and Edge Health, found 107 of 132 trusts (81%) would have fewer beds available to them than last winter.
Forty-six trusts would exceed capacity by 110% or more.
King’s College Hospital would be the hospital with the biggest shortage of beds if it had to deal with winter demand alongside coronavirus, with the analysis finding it would be 29.4% over-capacity.
Walsall Healthcare, near Birmingham, would be 28.8% over-capacity, followed by Countess of Chester Hospital (18.5%), East Cheshire (12.6%), Northampton General Hospital (11.4%) and Blackpool Teaching Hospitals (10.9%).
The analysis did not take did not count the new beds added by Nightingale hospitals due to a lack of data.
However, it comes as a leaked NHS document revealed coronavirus could hit hospitals five times harder than in April, when an average of 16,000 beds were required for coronavirus patients per day.
The ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ was set out in a ‘confidential’ document accidentally posted online by a Kent NHS trust, the Health Services Journal reported.
The document said introducing ‘re-tightening measures’ – not a full lockdown – could reduce the second wave’s peak to half of that of April’s levels.
A ‘more likely’ case would see admissions rising before Christmas and not declining to current levels until the middle of next year, according to the NHS document.
An NHS England spokesman highlighted additional measures including the Nightingale hospitals and a £3 billion plan to ensure beds are available in private hospitals.
The spokesman said: ‘Over winter the NHS will flex hospital capacity and community services as needed, alongside a major winter flu immunisation campaign.
‘While Covid inpatient numbers are currently low as we head into winter, the success of these efforts will of course also depend on controlling the virus in the community, including through test and trace, rapid action to control local outbreaks, and of course continued public support for hand hygiene and social distancing measures.’
The UK on Sunday recorded its biggest surge in new coronavirus cases since mid-May.
About 3,000 new cases were reported in the 24 hours between Saturday and Sunday.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock urged people ‘don’t kill your gran’ as he warned the UK was slipping on social distancing.
He blamed affluent young people as being behind the recent rise in cases.
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