Will Doja Cat or Roddy Ricch win Best New Artist at the MTV Video Music Awards? Our odds say …

According to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, two chart-topping newcomers have the advantage for Best New Artist at the MTV Video Music Awards. So will it be Doja Cat or Roddy Ricch? Or are we perhaps underestimating any of their four rivals?

As of this writing Doja Cat is the front-runner with leading odds of 10/3. Among those betting on her to win are 19 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s VMAs, and 18 of our All-Star Top 24 who had the best predictions when you combine the last two years’ results. She has two other nominations: Song of the Year and Best Direction for “Say So,” whose remix with Nicki Minaj earned her her first number-one hit on the Billboard Hot 100.

But don’t count out Roddy Ricch. He has had a huge year, winning a Grammy for Best Rap Performance for “Racks in the Middle” with the late Nipsey Hussle and Hit-Boy. And his song “The Box” dominated the charts, topping the Hot 100 for 11 weeks over the winter and spring. That’s a longer run than any other number-one hit this year. And Ricch also has the second longest running number-one hit of the year as a featured artist on DaBaby‘s “Rockstar,” which ruled the roost for seven weeks to date. Ricch currently gets 4/1 odds and is backed by four of our Top 24 and six of our All-Stars. And he also has two other nominations: Song of the Year and Best Hip-Hop Video for “The Box.”

So what about the rest of the field? Fellow chart-topper Lewis Capaldi ranks third with 5/1 odds and support from one of our Top 24. But his big breakthrough hit, “Someone You Loved,” was peaking about a year ago. Will his fan base be mobilized enough this year? Rounding out the field are underdogs Jack Harlow (6/1 odds), YUNGBLUD (13/2 odds) and Tate McRae (15/2 odds). Do you agree with our users that it’s a two-way race, or should we watch out for one of these dark horses?

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on August 30. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. And join in the fierce debate over the 2020 VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.