Climate change could unlock Ice Age bugs that spark the world’s next pandemic

A world expert on diseases is warning that frozen ‘ancient microbes’ are a danger to humanity, as rising temperatures thaw the Arctic. 

Dr Dennis Carroll – who appears in the Netflix documentary Pandemic – said we should be ‘should be exceedingly cautious about underestimating the potential threats’ that reborn germs could pose. Speaking exclusively to Metro.co.uk, Dr Carroll – dubbed ‘the man who saw the pandemic coming’ – also warned that diseases spread from wildlife should also be seen as a global health concern following the coronavirus outbreak.

His intervention comes as scientists today published new research on how rising temperatures melting ‘permafrost’ Arctic soil could give a new lease of life to dormant microbes. Those bacteria and viruses, frozen for thousands of years, could potentially include diseases which humanity has previously ‘eradicated’ – and ones we have never encountered.

Dr Carroll explained: ‘The world is faced with the very real prospect that ancient microbes which have long lay dormant beneath the frozen tundra will be given a new life with climate change and the thawing of the Arctic north. 

‘The risks that these “reborn” microbes may pose to humanity is unknown, but Covid-19 is a striking reminder that we should be exceedingly cautious about underestimating the potential threats they may pose.’

Also the President of the Global Virome Project and a former director of key American agency, he added: ‘The world would be well advised to pay close attention to the risk these ancient “visitors” may pose to humanity.’

The threat has been known about for some time, but international researchers explored what ‘critical knowledge gaps’ remain late last year and released their findings earlier today. They noted that average temperatures in the Arctic have risen dramatically in the last 30 years and are forecast to continue doing so more quickly than the rest of the world, as the climate crisis worsens.

In 2016, scientists believe that a Russian anthrax outbreak which killed a boy came from a reindeer carcass that thawed out in Siberia.

And academics have previously ‘revived’ an 8 million year old bacterium that was frozen – showing how dangerous bacteria can be brought back to life. Research has also revealed traces of novel giant viruses in the Arctic permafrost, while Arctic ice melting has been linked to phocine distemper virus spreading from the Atlantic to Pacific in seals and sea otters.

Now scientists from the US, Europe and the InterAcademy Partnership have released findings on ‘possible future risks of harmful infectious agents emerging from thawing permafrost and ice in the Arctic region’.

Following a workshop, they wrote: ‘The Arctic region has not hitherto been highly visible in maps of global hotspots for infectious disease risk. 

‘However, a case can now be made that the Arctic is increasingly relevant because of its rapid pace of warming and development – while it is frozen now it won’t necessarily be in the future.’

Dr Audrey Thévenon, Program Officer at National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine told Metro.co.uk that this was ‘the first international conversation’ about the topic. 

She added that environmental issues and their link to disease should be viewed ‘holistically’, explaining: ‘The phrase “it’s not if but when” in terms of pandemics has been around for decades and the change in climate patterns, which includes but is not limited to the warming of some areas, is only adding pressure on an already vexed ecosystem.’

Dr Thévenon, who helped organised a ‘multinational workshop that reviewed the impact of the Arctic and glacial thaw on the potential release of long dormant microbes’, also warned that climate change could raise the threat of diseases to humans in a number of other ways. 

She said it will impact where in the world diseases infect humans; shift seasonal patterns in infectious diseases and the predictability of pathogen survival; move some wild animals closer to livestock and humans, increasing the chance of infection; means that sewage released by increasingly unpredictable weather and more frequent disaster could increase infection exposures and more.

Dr Carroll added: ‘The threat of additional spillovers of dangerous pathogens from wildlife remains very much a concern for global health security.’

Dr Thévenon called for ‘communities of researchers, stakeholders (including the indigenous populations), policymakers, and security experts to come together and be part of the solutions to prepare for coming issues’.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

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