Phillies have sixth-lowest playoff odds in the National League

According to Fangraphs’ 2020 projections, the Phillies have the sixth-lowest odds to make the playoffs this season. At 18.7 percent, they are well behind three other competitors in the NL East: the Atlanta Braves (56.4 percent), New York Mets (58.4 percent) and Washington Nationals (63.9 percent).

Fangraphs also projects the Phillies will win 79.6 games, good for a second-consecutive fourth-place finish in the division. It is not as conservative as Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, which has the Phillies winning 71 games with an 8.9 percent chance to make the postseason.

The five NL teams behind the Phillies in playoff odds are the Arizona Diamondbacks (16.7 percent), Colorado Rockies (4.4 percent), Pittsburgh Pirates (1.4 percent), San Francisco Giants (0.7 percent) and Miami Marlins (0.3 percent). The three NL teams with the highest odds to win their own division are the Nationals (35.6 percent), Cubs (39.4 percent) and Dodgers (90.8 percent). Los Angeles winning the NL West is as certain as a bet as you can make, but as far as Washington and Chicago go, it’ll be surprising to see both teams on top of their division come October.

The trend of projection systems undervaluing the Phillies should come to no surprise to many. While the lineup has significantly improved, there are many questions surrounding the talent level of both the back end of the rotation and bullpen. If the Phillies beat out these projections and make the postseason for the first time since 2011, it’ll be interesting to see if these pessimistic projects will be used as a rallying cry.

MORE FROM PHILLIES NATION

1. Matt Klentak: It’s Time To Play In October
2. 34 Numbers To Remember: Roy Halladay’s Incredible Career
3. Joe Girardi Hopes That David Robertson Will Pitch In 2020
4. Seranthony Dominguez: ‘I Want To Be Ready For Opening Day’
5. Bryce Harper Gives Nuanced Take On Potentially Trading For Kris Bryant
6. Andy MacPhail Hopes Phillies Will Exceed Luxury Tax In 2020
7. Phillies Nation Roundtable: Bold Predictions For 2020
8. Matt Klentak Says Odubel Herrera Will Have To Earn Any Future Opportunities
9. The Phillies Path To One Of The Wild Cards Won’t Be Easy Either
10. PECOTA Predicts Phillies Will Finish With Losing Record