Are Biden and Warren finished?
The New Hampshire results with 91% counted are:
- Sanders 26%
- Buttigieg 24%
- Klobuchar 20%
- Warren 9%
- Biden 8%
New Hampshire, like Iowa, is not a representative state. It is 94% White and the Democrats there tend to be more liberal than the rest of the country. So no one was expecting Biden to win or even come 2nd. But 5th with 8% is terrible.
Unless he does amazingly well in Nevada and South Carolina, I think all over for him. Moderates seem to be leaving him for Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Will his strong black support remain? He could be out just before or after Super Tuesday.
Hard to see a path for Warren. The liberal uber progressive vote has gone to Sanders. Warren may leave even before Biden. New Hampshire is her neigbouring state and she got 9%.
Klobuchar could be interesting. 20% is pretty respectable. She had targeted the first two states a lot and far from clear she has resources to compete in the others. But if Biden looks more and more unviable she and Buttigieg will compete for his vote and she may look safer with a proven electoral record.
So I think now down to Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar with Bloomberg the wild card. Bloomberg is now in 3rd place in the national polls.
If all four of them stay in after Super Tuesday, a contested convention becomes more and more likely. Exciting times.