Horror: Here's What Would Happen If Japan and China's Navies Went to War

Kyle Mizokami

Security, Asia

A very bad idea.

Key point: Tokyo has an advanced and powerful navy, but Beijing's fleet may finally outrank it. Either way, a war would be disastrous for both countries.

The People’s Republic of China Army Navy (PLAN) is experiencing an unprecedented rise in ships and capabilities. China is building virtually every class of warship, from aircraft carriers to corvettes simultaneously, and in some cases, by the dozen.

Of particular note is the Luyang III or Type 052D–class destroyer. Designed to provide anti-air area defense to a carrier battle group or amphibious ready group, the 052D is the defensive linchpin of any Chinese task force, particularly one operating beyond the range of land-based assets. Two destroyers have been commissioned into the PLAN, with another seven under construction and one more planned.

At the same time, Japan is looking to modestly expand its surface warfare capabilities. The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has approved plans to build two new Aegis air warfare destroyers, bringing the pacifist country’s overall number of Aegis ships to eight. Based largely on American equipment, the new destroyers will be Japan’s answer to 052D. (For the purpose of this article we’ll imagine the new Japanese destroyers as Atago-class destroyers with upgrades—or Atago Plus for short.)

Or will it? Has China built a destroyer with to match Japan’s top of the line destroyers, or will it have to wait until the next generation? Are the upgrades Japan has planned for the two new ships too little, too late, or do they provide a decisive edge over the 052D?

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