The Democratic victory in Louisiana is not a repudiation of Donald Trump

LOUISIANA’S GOVERNOR John Bel Edwards, the only Democrat in the deeply Republican Deep South to hold his state’s top office, won a second term on November 16th, a result that was startling from nearly every angle. Mr Edwards hung on for a 51-49% victory over Eddie Rispone, a businessman, despite furious efforts by President Donald Trump to turn the race into a referendum on impeachment. The result has been misread in some corners as a repudiation of Mr Trump or as evidence of a turn towards the Democratic Party on the part of Louisiana voters. It was neither.

Despite governing a state where 58% of voters plumped for Mr Trump, Mr Edwards is popular. His achievements—a balanced budget, criminal-justice reforms—have been cautious, bipartisan affairs. He is an avid hunter and a diehard pro-lifer, taking away two of the most reliable lines of attack on Democrats in this part of the country. Mr Trump told voters that Mr Edwards was coming for their guns, but it is not clear anyone bought that.

The fact of Mr Edwards’s victory is important. But it is worth asking why an incumbent with a record of competent governance barely eked out a win over a feeble opponent, when four years ago, as a virtual nobody, he crushed a longtime Republican standard-bearer. The only explanation for the tight margin was what is going on in...