Why Jaylen Brown reportedly turning down a Celtics extension is actually a smart gamble

The reaction to the Yahoo report that Boston Celtics swingman Jaylen Brown had turned down a four-year, $80 million offer from the franchise was a lot of laughs and “you must be crazy!” tweets.

Brown finished last year with 13.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 34.4 percent from distance and just 65.8 percent from the line. Not exactly the kind of numbers you want to see from a former third overall pick in 2016 looking to earn big money.

But turning down that extension actually makes all the sense in the world, and it could end with Brown — a restricted free agent next summer — getting paid more than $80 million.

For one, you have to ignore those stats above. It’s all about potential with Brown, who will turn 23 in a week. He’s been on a crowded team for the past couple of years, competing for shots with Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Gordon Hayward and Marcus Morris. That gave the Celtics balance, but you have to imagine if he was on a less stacked squad, he might pile up more points.

There were also signs of Brown taking another step forward while playing for Team USA at the FIBA World Cup. Here’s a breakdown from the New York Times’ Marc Stein:

Brown was among the few players who emerged from U.S.A. Basketball’s humbling seventh-place finish in the FIBA World Cup in China with a boost to his reputation. He was aggressive, competitive and versatile for an American team gutted by a rash of defections by marquee names, emerging as one of the players United States Coach Gregg Popovich trusted most. A dearth of dependable frontcourt players led Popovich to deploy Brown as a power forward and, occasionally, as a small-ball center to try to fill the void.

That means someone’s going to see versatility in the 6-foot-7 Brown instead of plugging him in at just shooting guard and small forward.

But there’s also supply and demand at play with Brown. The list of 2020 free agents starts with Anthony Davis, who may be convinced to stay in Los Angeles with LeBron James. After that? It’s names like Pascal Siakam (I’d be the Raps give him an extension), DeMar DeRozan (he has a player option), Brandon Ingram (restricted) and Andre Drummond (if he declines his option).

So Brown might be in higher demand simply because his talent and potential is tantalizing, and because the market might be shallow.

Yes, playing out the season without a deal in place is a risk, especially when the Celtics are once again full of talent who will demand minutes. But Brown knows what he’s doing and he’ll end up reaping the financial rewards because of that risk.