Patrick Mahomes is proving to be the exception to drafting QBs high in fantasy football
Sometimes, when you’re making fantasy football predictions and writing takes, you can be wrong.
And, wow, was I wrong about something: Back in August, I wrote about the four reasons fantasy owners shouldn’t draft Patrick Mahomes because of his high price, an average draft position of 19th overall at a position that’s incredibly deep.
The funny thing is, if you look at the top scorers through three weeks, that might be true — Mahomes (86.8 fantasy points) is second behind Keenan Allen, and is just over a point ahead of fellow QBs Lamar Jackson and about three ahead of Dak Prescott, two quarterbacks I took in a lot of places with picks later in drafts. Russell Wilson is right there, too.
But let’s take a step back for a second and bask in the glow of these absolutely unreal statistics:
That last one was what got me to change my mind. If Mahomes indeed becomes the NFL’s first 6,000-yard passer and passes Peyton Manning’s 55 touchdowns in 2013, AND he adds in some rushing yards and scores (he had 272 and two TDs on the ground last year), then you’re looking at some bonkers numbers.
This stat, which I cited in my previous post on the subject, might be completely destroyed:
Using a points calculator and adding in about 200 rushing yards and a couple of rushing touchdowns — plus 10 interceptions, even though he hasn’t thrown a single one yet — you get around 500 fantasy points. That’s nearly 100 more than Manning had in 2013.
We talk a lot about floors and ceilings with fantasy players, and although I liked the ceilings of QBs like Prescott and Jackson, it’s the floor of Mahomes that’s worth a top pick. It feels like you’re always getting a 300-yard day and three touchdowns right from the start. There’s peace of mind you don’t get when you wonder if the Texans’ offensive line is going to eventually get Deshaun Watson hurt (although, hey, he was sacked just twice on Sunday!) or Baker Mayfield isn’t going to live up to the hype and so on.
If Mahomes ends up annihilating records, he’ll have been worth the top pick … and maybe more.